EXPAND ENERGY CorpEXE · Nasdaq

Why the market may be pricing it low

• Realized natural gas prices trail NYMEX and swing sharply year to year, so the market likely discounts the quality of these earnings as commodity-driven.

  Average NYMEX Price 3.43 64.81 Average Realized Price (including realized derivatives) 3.16 55.60MD&A

• Ongoing regulatory tightening and litigation risk around hydraulic fracturing remain a persistent overhang on operations.

  Regulatory proposals in some states and local communities have been initiated to require or make more stringent the permitting and compliance requirements for hydraulic fracturing operations.Risk factors

• Integration costs from the large October 2024 Southwestern merger have not yet fully wound down.

  During 2025 and 2024, we recognized approximately $57 million and $312 million, respectively, of costs related to the Southwestern MergerMD&A

What could close the gap

• A pending reconsideration of the federal BLM drilling/venting rule could clear away regulatory uncertainty if resolved favorably.

  The BLM has given notice that it is in the process of considering revisions to the final rule and has delayed enforcement of two provisionsRisk factors

• Repeated Item 5.02 management-change disclosures in recent 8-Ks suggest new leadership could prompt a strategic reassessment.

  2026-06-26 Item 5.028-K filings

How a buyer could still lose (value trap)

• Recent operating profit is more than double the past three-year average, so earnings could revert if gas prices normalize.

  Based on the figures below

• Despite disclosed share repurchases, share count has actually been increasing, pointing to ongoing dilution.

  Based on the figures below

Financial quality (Piotroski F-score)

• ✓Profitable (ROA > 0)
• ✓Positive operating cash flow
• ✓ROA up on last year
• ✓Cash flow exceeds net profit
• ✓Leverage down on last year
• ✓Current ratio up on last year
• ✗No new shares issued
• –Gross margin up on last yearno data
• ✓Asset turnover up on last year

Scored out of the checks with data, scaled to 9. Compares the latest year with the year before.

Figures

Sales

$13.6bn

Operating profit

$3.7bn

Net profit

$2.8bn

Operating cash flow

$5.7bn

Cash

$663m

Debt

$4.6bn

Equity

$19.4bn

Latest twelve months to 2026-06-30; F-score for the fiscal year to 2025-12-31