One company owns 50%+
1 in 4were bought
2.9x the average
73 of 275 companies
TOB × DATA
What kind of company gets bought next?
Five years of tender offers and MBOs, set against every listed company’s annual report from before the bids. What mattered most was who owns the company, not how cheap it looks.
Companies tested3,860profiles as of 2021–22
Bought since1 in 11359 companies (9.3%) in ~4 years
Top 10% by score1 in 5were bought; they held 23% of all targets
Activist stakes now230companies, filings in the past 2 years
What came before a takeover
Of the companies with each trait in 2021–22, how many were bought by tender offer or MBO in the following four years or so.
A controlling shareholder (over 50%)
1 in 5were bought
2.3x the average
81 of 378 companies
An activist held a stake
1 in 5were bought
2.0x the average
18 of 98 companies
Often cited, but no difference
Price-to-book <0.5x (cheap)
1 in 12were bought
About the same as the average (0.9x)
48 of 599 companies
Net cash 50%+ of market value
1 in 12were bought
About the same as the average (0.9x)
62 of 746 companies
By type of buyer
Each type has its own model, trained only on past deals of that type. The number next to each company is its score relative to that type's average.
Buyout by the parent
A parent buys out the minority
Past deals 99（2.6%）
What matteredOne company owns 50%+5.7x
A controlling shareholder (over 50%)4.4x
- GMO Internet, Inc.19.3xGMO internet group, Inc. owns 91% (controlling)
- HITO-TO-HITO Holdings Co.,Ltd.15.9xA company owns 85% (controlling)
- SANDEN CORPORATION13.6xA company owns 73% (controlling)
- ORACLE CORPORATION JAPAN12.0xORACLE JAPAN HOLDING,INC. owns 74% (controlling)
- MARUHACHI HOLDINGS CO., LTD.11.6xA company owns 68% (controlling)
Management buyout
Managers buy their own company, often with a fund
Past deals 88（2.3%）
What matteredOne company owns 33–50%2.3x
The founder family owns 25–50%1.6x
- NEOJAPAN Inc.7.3xA company owns 37%
- MEDIKIT CO.,LTD.5.6xA company owns 41%
- Kurashicom Inc.5.4xActivist stake: Valex Partners
- Sakai Moving Service Co.,Ltd.5.0xA company owns 36%
- ChatPlus Co., Ltd.4.8xA company owns 40%
Private equity
A private equity fund buys it
Past deals 57（1.5%）
What matteredOne company owns 50%+2.0x
Price-to-book 1.5–3x1.9x
- SMS CO., LTD.18.8xActivist stake: Oasis
- DENTSU SOKEN INC.14.7xDENTSU GROUP INC. owns 62% (controlling)
- Infomart Corporation13.9xActivist stake: Oasis
- Daikokuya Holdings Co.,Ltd.12.4xA company owns 66% (controlling)
- Will Smart Co.,LTD.11.9xZENRIN CO., LTD. owns 44%
Strategic buyer
Another operating company buys it
Past deals 108（2.8%）
What matteredOne company owns 50%+2.9x
A controlling shareholder (over 50%)2.3x
- KUBOTEK CORPORATION11.6xFounder family owns 72%
- Twenty-four seven Holdings Inc.11.1xHas an unlisted parent company
- VALUE CREATION CO.,LTD.10.9xA company owns 56% (controlling)
- Wintest Corp.10.4xHas an unlisted parent company
- GALA INCORPORATED9.9xHas an unlisted parent company
Top 20 overall
| # | Company | Closest type | Score (vs average) | Main reasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DENTSU SOKEN INC.4812・IT & telecoms | PE fund | 6.0x | DENTSU GROUP INC. owns 62% (controlling)Activist stake: OasisPrice-to-book 5.58x |
| 2 | GMO Internet, Inc.4784・Services | Parent | 5.8x | GMO internet group, Inc. owns 91% (controlling)Price-to-book 11.10x |
| 3 | NS Solutions Corporation2327・IT & telecoms | Parent | 5.8x | NIPPON STEEL CORPORATION owns 63% (controlling)Activist stake: 3D Investment Partners |
| 4 | OSAKA STEEL CO., LTD.5449・Steel | Parent | 5.8x | A company owns 56% (controlling)Activist stake: Effissimo, Strategic Capital |
| 5 | HITO-TO-HITO Holdings Co.,Ltd.549A・Services | Parent | 5.8x | A company owns 85% (controlling) |
| 6 | SEPTENI HOLDINGS CO., LTD.4293・Services | Strategic | 5.4x | DENTSU GROUP INC. owns 52% (controlling)Activist stake: Oasis |
| 7 | INTAGE HOLDINGS Inc.4326・IT & telecoms | Strategic | 5.1x | A company owns 51% (controlling)Activist stake: Dalton / NAVF |
| 8 | Daikokuya Holdings Co.,Ltd.6993・Electrical equipment | Strategic | 4.7x | A company owns 66% (controlling)Price-to-book 12.74x |
| 9 | DAIHO CORPORATION1822・Construction | Strategic | 4.7x | A company owns 50% (controlling)Activist stake: Murakami group (City Index Eleventh etc.) |
| 10 | Sharing Innovations Inc.4178・IT & telecoms | Parent | 4.5x | Orchestra Holdings Inc. owns 72% (controlling)Market value ¥2.4bn |
| 11 | SHANON Inc.3976・IT & telecoms | Strategic | 4.5x | Innovation Inc. owns 57% (controlling)Market value ¥3.3bn |
| 12 | Convano Inc.6574・Services | Strategic | 4.5x | A company owns 62% (controlling)Price-to-book 9.18x |
| 13 | GOLDCREST Co.,Ltd.8871・Real estate | MBO | 4.4x | A company owns 48%Activist stake: Strategic Capital |
| 14 | SANDEN CORPORATION6444・Machinery | Parent | 4.3x | A company owns 73% (controlling)Net cash -196% of market value |
| 15 | Magmag, Inc.4059・IT & telecoms | Parent | 4.3x | AirTrip Corp. owns 69% (controlling)Market value ¥1.2bn |
| 16 | TETSUJIN Holdings,Inc.2404・Services | Strategic | 4.3x | A company owns 62% (controlling)Price-to-book 11.01x |
| 17 | StemCell Institute Inc.7096・Pharmaceuticals | Parent | 4.3x | NIHON TRIM CO.,LTD. owns 71% (controlling) |
| 18 | AEON Financial Service Co., Ltd.8570・Other financing | Parent | 4.3x | AEON CO.,LTD. owns 48%Activist stake: OasisNet cash -204% of market value |
| 19 | Cross E Holdings Corporation Limited231A・Services | Parent | 4.2x | H.I.S. Co., Ltd. owns 70% (controlling)Market value ¥3.0bn |
| 20 | GMO Product Platform, Inc.3695・IT & telecoms | Parent | 4.2x | GMO internet group, Inc. owns 70% (controlling) |
Score: the model score combining all the traits, relative to the average listed company. It is not a forecast that the company will be bought. Each company's page shows how often companies with a similar score were actually bought in the past test.
This site ranks listed companies by how closely their public filings (annual reports and large-shareholding reports) resemble past tender-offer and MBO targets. It is not a prediction that any company will be bought, is not based on any non-public information, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.
Updated 29 Sep 2026 00:48 JST