GOLD × MINERS
When gold rises, which miners gain the most?
A miner earns the gap between the gold price and its costs, so when gold rises its profits can grow several times faster. But costs, hedges, by-products, debt and politics decide how much of that reaches shareholders. This site reads the latest filings of the major producers and royalty companies and ranks them on the same yardsticks, every day.
Is this a market where miners beat gold?
Owning miners instead of gold only pays when these hold. A lit lamp means the condition holds today.
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Miners are moving more than goldYes1.80x
GDX's 52-week weekly beta to gold (its move for a 1% move in gold) is 1.5 or more.
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Miners are beating goldYes+7.8% vs 200-day
GDX divided by the gold price is above its 200-day average.
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Margins are wideningYes+54% y/y
Across the producers covered, last quarter's margin (average gold price minus AISC, production-weighted) beat the same quarter a year earlier.
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Costs are rising slower than goldYesAISC +19% / gold +38%
The same companies' AISC rose less, year on year, than the average gold price over the same quarters.
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Miners still look cheap against goldNo64th percentile
GDX divided by the gold price sits below the middle of its range since 2006.
Week to week, miners do amplify gold: GDX's 52-week beta is 1.80x now and has stayed above 1 for most of the past 20 years. Over whole years it is another story: in the 13 years gold rose 5% or more, GDX beat gold in only 5, and GDX ÷ gold is still 62% below where it started in 2006. Cost inflation, share issuance and mining taxes have eaten much of the leverage over time. Miners pay when margins widen faster than costs, which is what the conditions above check.
If gold rises 10% (+$421), whose shares should rise most?
| # | Company | Type | Gold +10%: shares should rise | Shares actually moved (beta) | Quality | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B2GoldBTG・Mid-tier | Mid-tier | +22% | +21% | 56 | Country risk |
| 2 | IAMGOLDIAG・Mid-tier | Mid-tier | +21% | +22% | 74 | Country risk |
| 3 | Equinox GoldEQX・Mid-tier | Mid-tier | +20% | +20% | 83 | Country risk |
| 4 | Eldorado GoldEGO・Mid-tier | Mid-tier | +19% | +17% | 45 | Heavy debt |
| 5 | Harmony GoldHMY・Mid-tier | Mid-tier | +19% | +23% | 56 | None |
| 6 | AngloGold AshantiAU・Major | Major | +18% | +22% | 68 | None |
| 7 | Endeavour MiningEDV LN・Mid-tier | Mid-tier | +17% | +17% | 65 | Country risk |
| 8 | Gold FieldsGFI・Major | Major | +17% | +21% | 87 | None |
| 9 | Kinross GoldKGC・Major | Major | +16% | +19% | 67 | None |
| 10 | NewmontNEM・Major | Major | +15% | +16% | 82 | None |
Should rise is calculated from results: how much the per-ounce margin grows when gold rises 10% (after hedges, by-products and price-linked royalties), scaled up for net debt (enterprise value ÷ market value), assuming the market keeps valuing the company on the same multiple. Actually moved is the two-year beta to gold × 10%. Quality is a 0–100 score for reserves, balance sheet, jurisdiction, delivery and cost control.
Leverage against quality
Buying the ETF instead
GDX holds 59 companies, but the top five make up 41% and the top ten 59%. Gold producers are 76% of it; royalty companies 14%, and silver or copper-led miners 9%. The companies ranked on this site cover 70% of GDX.
Updated 28 Sep 2026 15:53 JST · prices to 28 Sep 2026