The short answer
Week to week, miners do amplify gold: GDX's 52-week beta is 1.80x now and has stayed above 1 for most of the past 20 years. Over whole years it is another story: in the 13 years gold rose 5% or more, GDX beat gold in only 5, and GDX ÷ gold is still 62% below where it started in 2006. Cost inflation, share issuance and mining taxes have eaten much of the leverage over time. Miners pay when margins widen faster than costs, which is what the conditions above check.
Five conditions
The case for miners over gold is operating leverage: a fixed-ish cost base means profits rise faster than the price. These five conditions test whether that is actually happening now.
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Miners are moving more than goldYes1.80x
GDX's 52-week weekly beta to gold (its move for a 1% move in gold) is 1.5 or more.
The point of owning miners is that they move more than gold. Near 1x, gold itself will do.
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Miners are beating goldYes+7.8% vs 200-day
GDX divided by the gold price is above its 200-day average.
There have been long stretches (2011–15, 2020–24) when miners lagged even as gold rose. This checks the current trend.
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Margins are wideningYes+54% y/y
Across the producers covered, last quarter's margin (average gold price minus AISC, production-weighted) beat the same quarter a year earlier.
Share prices come down to margin per ounce times ounces. If the margin is not widening, higher gold is not reaching shareholders.
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Costs are rising slower than goldYesAISC +19% / gold +38%
The same companies' AISC rose less, year on year, than the average gold price over the same quarters.
In 2020–24 cost inflation (labour, fuel, mining taxes) ate the gold gains, and miners lagged gold.
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Miners still look cheap against goldNo64th percentile
GDX divided by the gold price sits below the middle of its range since 2006.
If miners have already run far ahead of gold, there is less catching up to do. The first four ask whether leverage is working; this one asks whether there is room left.
Miners against gold since 2006
GDX divided by the gold price, with GDX's launch (May 2006) = 100, now stands at 38: the 64th percentile of its history. The high was 116 (Sep 2006) and the low 20 (Jan 2016). A falling line means miners lagged gold.
Year by year
In the 13 full years when gold rose 5% or more, GDX beat gold in 5. The median realised leverage was 0.8x in years gold rose and 2.2x in years it fell. Leverage cuts both ways, and in some years miners fell while gold rose.
Show the numbers
| Year | Gold | GDX | GDXJ | GDX ÷ gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | +31.4% | +14.8% | — | 0.5x |
| 2008 | +5.8% | -26.1% | — | -4.5x |
| 2009 | +23.9% | +36.4% | — | 1.5x |
| 2010 | +29.8% | +33.0% | +55.0% | 1.1x |
| 2011 | +10.2% | -16.3% | -38.1% | -1.6x |
| 2012 | +7.0% | -9.8% | -19.9% | -1.4x |
| 2013 | -28.2% | -54.5% | -60.8% | 1.9x |
| 2014 | -1.5% | -13.0% | -22.9% | — |
| 2015 | -10.4% | -25.4% | -19.7% | 2.4x |
| 2016 | +8.5% | +52.5% | +64.2% | 6.2x |
| 2017 | +13.6% | +11.1% | +8.2% | 0.8x |
| 2018 | -2.1% | -9.3% | -11.5% | — |
| 2019 | +18.9% | +38.8% | +39.8% | 2.1x |
| 2020 | +24.7% | +23.0% | +28.3% | 0.9x |
| 2021 | -3.5% | -11.1% | -22.7% | — |
| 2022 | -0.1% | -10.5% | -15.0% | — |
| 2023 | +13.4% | +8.2% | +6.3% | 0.6x |
| 2024 | +27.5% | +9.4% | +12.8% | 0.3x |
| 2025 | +64.4% | +152.9% | +166.2% | 2.4x |
| 2026* | -3.1% | +8.3% | +6.4% | — |
How much miners move with gold
Over the past 52 weeks, GDX moved 1.80x gold's weekly moves and GDXJ 1.99x.
Industry margin
Production-weighted across the 15 producers on this site that report AISC for the same quarter a year earlier (royalty companies excluded). Gold is the daily COMEX average over each company’s quarter.
Updated 28 Sep 2026 15:53 JST · prices to 28 Sep 2026