After Deal
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After Deal

Think about what outlasts the market, before it turns.

Two big currents, the rise of AI and the decline of money, set against similar scenes from the past and checked every morning: does the case behind each market still hold?

Today’s map: does the case for each theme hold?

Two big currents are running at once. One is the rise of AI: huge sums are pouring into chips, data centres, power and copper. The other is the decline of money: US debt keeps swelling, the yen is historically weak in real terms, and central banks keep buying gold.

Neither is a scene we have never seen. After the dot-com bubble of 2000, many companies vanished, and the real winners grew on the fibre networks left behind. In the 1970s, as the value of money wavered, oil and gold rose many times over.

These sites set today against those similar scenes on the same yardsticks, and check every morning whether the case behind each market still holds. The aim is not to call the future, but to notice when the case breaks.

In three lines

  • AI47 months since ChatGPT, the Nasdaq is up 2.20x. At the same point in the dot-com bubble it was 2.85x.
  • MoneyThe yen's real value (REER) is 62.0, lowest since 1970. Central banks are buying gold at 54 tonnes a month.
  • PastReal commodity prices have made 4 big waves since 1900 (latest peak 2011). Metals are +71% since the 2020 low.

The rise of AI

Is the AI investment wave a rerun of 2000? The power, grid and copper behind it, and the US–China race over chips and power. Would demand for electricity outlast an AI bust?

3 sites

The decline of money

As the dollar and the yen lose value, will gold and gold miners pay off? How far will the weak yen and rising Japanese rates go?

3 sites

Scenes from the past

The 30-year waves in commodity prices and the inflation of the 1970s. Where are we now? (The dot-com comparison is in AI Cycle Watch, under The rise of AI.)

2 sites

Japan's corporate reshuffle

Tender offers and buyouts, who might be next, and companies left cheap for what they earn.

3 sites

Tools

Across the themes: when to buy.

1 site