GOLD · MINERS · VALUE · TOB

How much can a chart tell you about when to buy?

The gold, gold miners, value stocks and tender-offer candidates followed on the other After Deal sites, sorted each morning into oversold, normal and overheated. What to buy is for the other sites; this one only asks when. The calls use only the indicators that held up in a test on daily prices since 2011.

What the test found

The popular golden cross and MACD buy signals did about as well as buying on any day (difference after three months: golden cross −3.2% to +0.3%, MACD −0.5% to +0.1%).
What held up was oversold (RSI 30 or below). For stocks and gold miners, returns over the next three months beat buying on any day by +1.7% to +3.8% on average. Not for gold and silver, though.
Overheated Japanese stocks did 1.0% worse than average over the next three months and fell 20% or more 12% of the time (6% normally). A reason to wait.

Today's calls

Of 73: 0 oversold, 3 close to it, 5 overheated (closing prices on 28 Sep 2026).

Gold and silver

Oversold: 0
Overheated: 0
Close to oversold: 1

of 4

List and charts →Gold miners

Oversold: 0
Overheated: 0
Close to oversold: 2

of 21

List and charts →Value stocks

Coming soon (after the value-stock site launches)

List and charts →TOB candidates

Oversold: 0
Overheated: 5
Close to oversold: 0

of 48

List and charts →

Oversold or close to it

Name	Group	Call	RSI	vs 200-day line	3-month change
Gold FieldsMajor · GFI	Gold miners	NormalClose to oversold	31	−19%	0%
Gold (US dollars, futures)COMEX front-month futures	Gold and silver	NormalClose to oversold	33	−8%	+1%
Kinross GoldMajor · KGC	Gold miners	NormalClose to oversold	33	−18%	−2%

Oversold: RSI 30 or below. Close: 30 to 35. Lowest RSI first.

Overheated

Name	Group	Call	RSI	vs 200-day line	3-month change
Sharing Innovations Inc.#10 · Buyout by the parent	TOB candidates	Overheated	82	+18%	+25%
GMO Product Platform, Inc.#20 · Buyout by the parent	TOB candidates	Overheated	79	0%	+20%
GMO Commerce, Inc.#29 · Buyout by the parent	TOB candidates	Overheated	79	+11%	+19%
DATA HORIZON CO.,LTD.#43 · Strategic buyer	TOB candidates	Overheated	70	+31%	+49%
Japan Tissue Engineering Co., Ltd.#25 · Strategic buyer	TOB candidates	Overheated	51	+30%	+36%

Overheated: RSI 75 or above, or the price at 1.3 times its 200-day line or more.

How the calls are made, and how well they worked

Oversold

14-day RSI of 30 or below: heavy selling in a short time. For stocks and gold miners, returns afterwards were a little above average.

Normal

Neither. Most days are here. Picking the day made little difference in the past.

Overheated

RSI of 75 or above, or the price 1.3 times its 200-day line or more. For Japanese and US stocks, returns afterwards were below average.

RSI: The share of the last 14 trading days of moves that were gains, on a 0 to 100 scale. 30 or below suggests heavy recent selling; 70 to 75 or above, heavy buying.
200-day line: The average close over the last 200 trading days (about ten months). How far the price is above or below it shows how stretched it is.
Three-month difference: The three-month return after buying on the signal, minus the average for buying the same stock on any day. Positive means the signal day was better.

Group	Oversold	Overheated
Gold and silver	No difference−0.7%	No difference+1.4%
Gold miners	Held up+3.8%	No difference+0.3%
Value stocks	Held up+2.7%	Unclear−1.7%
TOB candidates	Held up+3.2%	Held up−1.0%

Figures: the three-month return after the signal minus the average for any day. Held up = same direction in both halves of the period. TOB candidates were tested on Japanese stocks overall, value stocks on Japanese value stocks.

The full test, including golden crosses and MACD →

Before you use it

The edge is small, about 2–4% over three months on average. After an oversold signal, the chance of a fall of 20% or more is no lower than usual. It does not mean a safe entry.
Whether a stock is worth buying at all is for the other sites: is it cheap, is a tender offer likely, does the case for gold still hold.
The test is on past prices, before costs. It may not hold in future. Not investment advice.

Updated 29 Sep 2026 02:37 JST · closing prices on 28 Sep 2026