When the calls changed
Each site checks one premise behind its theme every day and calls it: holds, watch, or broken. The rules are fixed in advance and explained on each site's Data and method page. This page keeps every change of call with its date, so the calls can be checked against what happened later. Recorded since 2026-09-29.
How the premises are linked: which ones are really the same bet →
Today
| Site | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|
| AI Cycle Watch | ▲ Watch | 2 of 5 warning signs lit |
| Power Watch | ● Case holds | Power demand is growing faster than generation and the grid can keep up |
| US–China AI Race Watch | ● Case holds | The US leads on chips, China leads on power |
| Gold Premise Watch | ▲ Watch | 1 of 4 warning signs lit |
| Gold Miners Watch | ● Case holds | 4 of 5 conditions for miners to beat gold hold |
| Yen & Rates Watch | ▲ Watch | The weak yen holds but is wobbling: 2 of the three checks point toward a stronger yen |
| Supercycle Check | ▲ Watch | prices are rising, but a new supercycle has not clearly begun |
Changes
| Date | Site | Change | At the time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | AI Cycle Watch | ● Case holds → ▲ Watch | 1 of 5 warning signs lit |
| 2026-10-27 | Gold Miners Watch | ▲ Watch → ● Case holds | 4 of 5 conditions for miners to beat gold hold |
| 2026-10-24 | Gold Miners Watch | ● Case holds → ▲ Watch | 3 of 5 conditions for miners to beat gold hold |
| 2026-10-09 | Yen & Rates Watch | ● Case holds → ▲ Watch | The weak yen holds but is wobbling: 2 of the three checks point toward a stronger yen |