Jan 2026 · Power and chips
Elon MuskTesla, SpaceX, xAI
China will win on power, sort out the chips, and far exceed the world in AI compute
China's going to have more power than anyone else and probably will have more chips. Based on current trends, China will far exceed the rest of the world in AI compute. People are underestimating the difficulty of bringing electricity online.
What the data sayOn power he is right in direction, though not yet at 3x: in 2025 China generated 2.34x as much as the US. On compute the data point the other way so far: China's share of new AI compute fell from 11% in 2023 to 4.7% in 2025.
Watch: China's generation vs the US, and whether China's compute is catching up — Chips
Source: Business Insider, Elon Musk says China will 'far exceed the rest of the world in AI compute' (7 Jan 2026, on Moonshots with Peter Diamandis)
Nov 2025 · Power and chips
Jensen HuangNvidia
China will win (later: China is 'nanoseconds behind'); energy in China is almost free
China is going to win the AI race. … (statement hours later) As I have long said, China is nanoseconds behind America in AI. It's vital that America wins by racing ahead and winning developers worldwide.
What the data say'Nanoseconds' is closer to months: China's best model (Kimi K3) sits at a level US models first reached 4.4 months earlier. On price, OIES finds Chinese data-centre power costs US$ 0.08–0.14/kWh on the coast, near Virginia's US$ 0.10; the cheap power comes from local subsidies of up to 50%.
Watch: How many months apart the best models are, and whether Chinese power is really cheap — Models
Source: CNBC, Nvidia's Jensen Huang softens his 'China will win the AI race' remark to FT (6 Nov 2025)
Jan 2026 · Chips
Dario AmodeiAnthropic
The US is many years ahead in making chips; selling them to China is a big mistake
We are many years ahead of China in terms of our ability to make chips, so I think it would be a big mistake to ship these chips. It's a bit like selling nuclear weapons to North Korea.
What the data sayPer chip, the best US design (B300) does 3.3x the work of China's best (Ascend 910C). In 2025 all China-bound chips together added 636,000 H100s' worth of compute, against 12.9 million elsewhere.
Watch: The per-chip gap and the gap in compute shipped — Chips
Source: Axios, Anthropic CEO on Nvidia chips to China (20 Jan 2026, Davos)
Jun 2025 · Power and chips
Ren ZhengfeiHuawei founder
Chips are a generation behind, but clustering many of them closes the gap in practice
Our single chip is still a generation behind the US. We use mathematics to make up for physics, non-Moore's-law methods to supplement Moore's law, and cluster computing to make up for single chips.
What the data sayThe data bear out the method and its cost: China's big AI data centres use about 2.3 MW per 1,000 H100s' worth of compute, against 0.9 MW in the US, roughly 2.4x the power. Clustering works because China has the power to spare.
Watch: How much more power the same compute takes — Chips
Source: ChinaTalk, Huawei founder on US v China and basic research (translation of the People's Daily interview, 10 Jun 2025)