Feb 2026 · Power
Elon MuskSpaceX (after buying xAI)
Power on the ground cannot meet AI demand, so go to space and use sunlight
Global electricity demand for AI simply cannot be met with terrestrial solutions, even in the near term, without imposing hardship on communities and the environment.
What the data sayThe IEA expects US data-centre use to rise by about 240 TWh by 2030, about 40 TWh a year. US generation grew 128 TWh in the latest 12 months, so data centres alone would take about 31% of the growth.
Watch: US data-centre power needs versus how fast US generation grows — Power
Source: Al Jazeera, Musk merges SpaceX and xAI firms, plans for space-based AI data centres (3 Feb 2026)
Nov 2025 · Power
Satya NadellaMicrosoft
The problem is power, not chips: GPUs sit in inventory with nowhere to plug them in
The biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's power. You may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in. It's not a supply issue of chips; it's actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into.
What the data sayUS generation rose only +2.9% in the latest 12 months against +5.7% in China. The binding constraint in America is getting power to the site, which is what 'warm shells' means.
Watch: How fast US generation grows — Power
Source: Tom's Hardware, Microsoft CEO says the company doesn't have enough electricity to install all the AI GPUs in its inventory (November 2025, on the BG2 podcast)
May 2025 · Power
Sam AltmanOpenAI
In the end the cost of AI converges to the cost of energy
Chips will get cheaper and cheaper. But an electron is an electron. Eventually the cost of intelligence, the cost of AI, will converge to the cost of energy.
What the data sayIf he is right, the country with more electricity wins in the long run. China added 532 GW of generating capacity in 2025, the US 44 GW. But Chinese chips need about 2.4x as much power per unit of compute, which eats into that lead.
Watch: Power prices and volumes in both countries — Power
Source: Tech Policy Press, Transcript: Sam Altman testifies at US Senate hearing on AI competitiveness (8 May 2025)
Apr 2025 · Power
Eric SchmidtFormer Google chairman
AI's natural limit is electricity; the US needs 92 GW of new generation by 2030
The PRC understands the foundational power of AI and energy, pouring resources into AI R&D while building the world's leading renewable energy capacity and modern grid infrastructure.
What the data sayThe US added 44 GW of capacity in 2025, mostly solar that runs only part of the day. At that pace, 92 GW of firm power by 2030 is far off; China added 532 GW in the same year.
Watch: How many gigawatts the US adds each year — Power
Source: Written testimony of Eric Schmidt, House Energy & Commerce Committee (9 Apr 2025)
Feb 2024 · Power
Elon MuskTesla, xAI (then)
The shortage moves on: chips, then transformers, then electricity
A year ago the shortage was chips. The next shortage will be voltage step-down transformers, and the next will be electricity. Next year you will see they just can't find enough electricity to run all the chips.
What the data sayUS generation grew +2.9% over the latest 12 months (+128 TWh). The shortage he predicted shows up as waiting lines and prices, not as blackouts: see the transformer and connection queues on Power Watch.
Watch: How fast US generation is growing — Power Watch: the grid
Source: New Atlas, Elon Musk: AI will run out of electricity and transformers in 2025 (March 2024, at Bosch Connected World)