STAGE 2–3 · THE GRID AND CABLES
A power plant is useless until it is connected
Key points
- A new power plant is useless until it is connected to the grid, and the parts that connect it are in short supply.
- A large transformer takes about 2.5 years to arrive and costs 1.9x its 2019 price (1.4x after inflation).
- More power plants and batteries are waiting to be connected than are running today, and the wait now exceeds 5 years.
- Grid builders are swamped: Quanta Services' order book grew 1.7x in a year. Household power bills have not caught up yet.
Equipment prices
Show the numbers
| Item | vs 2019 (in dollars) | Real, 2019 = 100 | 1 year (real) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transformer prices | 1.88x | 144 | +4.3% |
| Switchgear prices | 1.94x | 149 | +9.6% |
| Cable prices | 1.84x | 141 | +1.5% |
Transformers step voltage up and down between power plants, lines and users; switchgear turns circuits on and off safely. Both were cheap commodities until 2020. Makers had shrunk capacity during the flat-demand years and could not add it quickly, because transformers need a special steel (grain-oriented electrical steel) that few plants make. Demand for power transformers has risen 116% since 2019 (Wood Mackenzie).
Source: FRED / Wood Mackenzie, Aug 2025 / POWER, 2026
Waiting times
The queue shrank 10% in 2025 because many solar, wind and battery projects gave up, but gas plants waiting to connect rose 86% to 253 GW. Projects that reached operation in 2025 had waited a median of more than 5 years from their request.
Source: POWER, 2026 / Wood Mackenzie, Aug 2025 / LBNL Queued Up 2026
Grid construction order book
Show the numbers
| Quarter end | Backlog |
|---|---|
| Mar 2019 | $4.7bn |
| Jun 2019 | $4.7bn |
| Sep 2019 | $4.4bn |
| Dec 2019 | $5.3bn |
| Mar 2020 | $5.4bn |
| Jun 2020 | $5.2bn |
| Sep 2020 | $4.4bn |
| Dec 2020 | $4.0bn |
| Mar 2021 | $4.1bn |
| Jun 2021 | $4.4bn |
| Sep 2021 | $4.4bn |
| Dec 2021 | $5.9bn |
| Mar 2022 | $6.8bn |
| Jun 2022 | $6.9bn |
| Sep 2022 | $6.8bn |
| Dec 2022 | $8.8bn |
| Mar 2023 | $10.3bn |
| Jun 2023 | $12.5bn |
| Sep 2023 | $13.6bn |
| Dec 2023 | $13.9bn |
| Mar 2024 | $14.9bn |
| Jun 2024 | $14.4bn |
| Sep 2024 | $15.6bn |
| Dec 2024 | $16.8bn |
| Mar 2025 | $17.6bn |
| Jun 2025 | $19.2bn |
| Sep 2025 | $21.0bn |
| Dec 2025 | $23.8bn |
| Mar 2026 | $26.2bn |
| Jun 2026 | $33.5bn |
Source: SEC
Has it reached power bills?
Not much yet. The average US household electricity price is +10% on 2019 after inflation (-0.2% in a year). Grid and capacity costs reach bills with a lag of several years, as regulators approve them.
Source: FRED
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Updated 29 Sep 2026 11:12 JST · US power data to May 2026 · metal prices to Aug 2026