Data and method | Power Watch

Data fetched every morning

Source	What we use
US EIA, Monthly Energy Review, Tables 7.6 (electricity end use) and 7.2a (net generation)	Monthly US electricity use by sector since 1973 (and yearly since 1949), including EV charging, and generation by source. Read straight from the Excel tables, so no API key is needed.
FRED (BLS producer prices for transformers, switchgear, wire and turbines; IMF uranium price; US CPI and electricity price)	US producer prices for transformers, switchgear, cables and turbines; uranium (IMF); US consumer prices (to remove inflation) and the average household electricity price.
World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), monthly	Monthly prices of copper, aluminium, nickel, gold and silver since 1960 (updated September 02, 2026).
SEC EDGAR (remaining performance obligations and revenue of GE Vernova and Quanta Services)	Remaining performance obligations (order backlog) and quarterly revenue of GE Vernova and Quanta Services.
Yahoo Finance (daily closes adjusted for dividends and splits)	Daily closes of the listings on the Ways to invest page, COMEX copper futures, the S&P 500, TOPIX (ETF 1306) and the yen.

Source status

Source	Status	Last success
EIA Monthly Energy Review	OK	2026-09-29 10:32
World Bank Pink Sheet	OK	2026-09-29 10:32
FRED	OK	2026-09-29 10:32
SEC EDGAR (companyfacts)	OK	2026-09-29 10:32
Yahoo Finance	OK	2026-09-29 10:32

Figures entered by hand

Exchange copper stocks are not shown: CME (COMEX) blocks automated downloads, the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved its public files in autumn 2025 and they can no longer be fetched, and LME data is paid.

Method

Demand: monthly figures summed over 12 months to remove the seasons. “Since 2019” compares the 12 months to the latest month with the 12 months to the same month of 2019. End use = sales to customers plus on-site use.
Data centres' share of the rise: LBNL's estimate for 2017 (60–80 TWh; we use 70) and 2024 (192 TWh), divided by the change in EIA's yearly US use over the same years.
Real prices: each monthly price divided by US CPI and set so that the 2019 average = 100. The latest month without CPI uses the latest CPI.
A stage shows “signs of strain” if its real price is 20% or more above 2019 and still higher than a year ago, or if its order backlog (GE Vernova for generation, Quanta Services for the grid) grew 15% or more in a year. The tightest stage is the one with the highest real price.
Premise check (“power demand is growing faster than generation and the grid can keep up”): Holding if US use over 12 months is up 1% or more on a year earlier and at least two of the four stages show strain; Broken if use is flat or falling and no stage shows strain; Watch otherwise. The same result is sent to the After Deal home page (meta.json).
Order backlog in years: remaining performance obligations divided by the last four quarters of revenue.
Copper history: World Bank monthly price divided by US CPI. Height in history = share of months since 1960 that were cheaper (0–100). New York premium: monthly average of COMEX front-month futures (cents/lb × 22.0462 = $/t) over the World Bank's LME monthly average.
Co-movement: correlation of weekly log price changes over the latest 104 weeks with each yardstick (the market, copper, the power-equipment average). The power-equipment average leaves out the stock itself when that stock is one of the four.
No AI is used. Hand-entered figures (reports published once a year, company results) are in content.py with their sources and updated by hand.

Updates

The data is fetched and the site rebuilt every morning (Japan time). EIA publishes monthly with a lag of about three months, the World Bank at the start of each month, and SEC filings every quarter.

Operator

Operator: After Deal operator (an individual)
No connection with any organisation, including the operator's employer, and none of its work product or data is used.
Nothing on this site is investment advice. Data belongs to each publisher and may contain errors or delays.

Corrections and questions: contact form / About After Deal