EXPERT VIEWS

What the experts say, and what the data shows

US national laboratory LBNL, the International Energy Agency, BloombergNEF, Wood Mackenzie, the grid operator PJM and Citi on power demand and copper, each checked against this site's data.

Key points

Every expert and institution here expects power demand to keep rising and copper to stay short. The data so far agrees on the bottlenecks: transformer and copper prices are well above 2019 after inflation, and order books are growing.
The weak point is the pace of demand: US use grew 1.2% in the latest year, while the data-centre forecasts need faster growth from here.

Research and public bodies

Jun 2026 · LBNL (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

US data centres will go from 4.7% of electricity in 2024 to 11.8% in 2030

192 TWh in 2024 and 649 TWh in 2030 (range 9.5–15.3%). Data centres account for a third of load growth over 2024–30.

What the data showsTo get there, data centres alone must add about 76 TWh a year. Total US use rose 50 TWh over the latest 12 months (+1.2%), so the forecast needs demand to speed up.

Source: LBNL, Jun 2026

Apr 2025 · IEA (International Energy Agency)

Global data-centre electricity use will more than double by 2030

From 415 TWh in 2024 (1.5% of the world's electricity) to 945 TWh in 2030 (just under 3%), driven mainly by AI-optimised data centres.

What the data showsUS data (EIA): commercial-sector use, where most data centres are counted, is +10% on 2019.

Source: IEA, Apr 2025

May 2025 · IEA (International Energy Agency)

Copper faces a potential 30% supply shortfall by 2035

Falling ore grades, rising costs, few discoveries and long lead times; China's grid investment has been the biggest source of demand growth.

What the data showsCopper is in the top 5% of months since 1960 after inflation, and the 2026 smelting fee benchmark is zero, a sign that mine supply is short now, not only in 2035.

Source: IEA, May 2025

Aug 2025 · BloombergNEF

Data centres will worsen the copper shortage

Data centres will use about 400,000 tonnes of copper a year over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 in 2028, but that is only about 1% of world copper use today.

What the data showsConsistent with this site's view: copper is 1.82x its 2019 price after inflation, far more than data centres' 1% share of use could explain alone.

Source: BNEF 2025

Industry and grid operators

Aug 2025 · Wood Mackenzie

US power transformers will be 30% short in 2025

Demand for power transformers is up 116% since 2019, and 80% of US supply is imported.

What the data showsUS transformer prices are 1.44x their 2019 level after inflation and still +4.3% in a year: the shortage has not eased.

Source: Wood Mackenzie, Aug 2025

Jul 2026 · PJM (grid operator for the eastern US)

It could not secure 6,831 MW of the capacity needed for 2028/29

The capacity auction (which buys power-plant capacity years ahead) cleared at the price cap for the third time; without the cap it would have been $554.72 per MW-day.

What the data showsTurbine makers cannot catch up quickly: GE Vernova's backlog grew 37% in a year to 4.3 years of sales.

Source: PJM, Jul 2026

Banks

Oct 2025 · Citi (Max Layton)

The gold and silver bull market will broaden into copper and aluminium in 2026

Drivers: AI and data centres, decarbonisation, robots and nuclear power.

What the data showsFrom Oct 2025 to Aug 2026: copper +33%, aluminium +16%, gold +9%, silver +32% (World Bank monthly averages). Copper has outpaced gold since the call.

Source: Citi, Oct 2025

This page organises information; it does not recommend buying or selling anything. Data belongs to each publisher and may contain errors or delays. Make your own investment decisions.

Updated 29 Sep 2026 11:12 JST · US power data to May 2026 · metal prices to Aug 2026