DEMAND
What is driving power demand?
Key points
- For 14 years (2007–2021) US electricity use hardly changed: LED lighting and efficient appliances cancelled out the growth.
- Since 2021 it has risen 6.8%. The biggest contributor is the commercial sector, where data centres are counted: 61% of the rise since 2019.
- Data centres' power use grew 2.7x in 7 years to 4.7% of US electricity, and made up about half of the rise since 2017.
- Without data centres, demand grew about 0.5% a year instead of 0.9%. If AI stalls, demand would not fall, but its growth would roughly halve.
Fourteen flat years, then growth
Show the numbers
| Year | TWh |
|---|---|
| 1990 | 2,837 |
| 1991 | 2,886 |
| 1992 | 2,897 |
| 1993 | 3,001 |
| 1994 | 3,081 |
| 1995 | 3,164 |
| 1996 | 3,254 |
| 1997 | 3,302 |
| 1998 | 3,425 |
| 1999 | 3,484 |
| 2000 | 3,592 |
| 2001 | 3,557 |
| 2002 | 3,632 |
| 2003 | 3,662 |
| 2004 | 3,716 |
| 2005 | 3,811 |
| 2006 | 3,817 |
| 2007 | 3,890 |
| 2008 | 3,866 |
| 2009 | 3,724 |
| 2010 | 3,887 |
| 2011 | 3,883 |
| 2012 | 3,832 |
| 2013 | 3,868 |
| 2014 | 3,903 |
| 2015 | 3,900 |
| 2016 | 3,902 |
| 2017 | 3,864 |
| 2018 | 4,003 |
| 2019 | 3,954 |
| 2020 | 3,856 |
| 2021 | 3,945 |
| 2022 | 4,067 |
| 2023 | 4,011 |
| 2024 | 4,110 |
| 2025 | 4,195 |
From 1950 to 2007 US power use grew almost every year. Then more efficient lighting and appliances and the move of heavy industry abroad cancelled out growth for 14 years. That ended around 2021.
Source: EIA
Who added the demand
| Sector | 12 months to May 2019 | 12 months to May 2026 | Added (TWh) | Share of the rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HomesAir-conditioning, heat pumps and EVs charged at home | 1,453 | 1,511 | +58 | 25% |
| Commercial (incl. data centres)Shops, offices, hospitals and most data centres | 1,375 | 1,513 | +138 | 61% |
| IndustryFactories and mines, including new chip and battery plants (reshoring) | 1,005 | 1,045 | +41 | 18% |
| Otheron-site use, transport | — | — | -9 | -4% |
| Total (incl. on-site use) | 3,984 | 4,212 | +228 | 100% |
| of which EV chargingcounted inside homes and commercial | 1.8 | 26 | +24 | 11% |
Homes rise and fall with the weather (hot summers mean more air-conditioning), so their growth is partly luck. Commercial demand, where data centres are counted, has risen steadily. Industry is growing again for the first time in years, helped by new chip and battery plants.
Source: EIA
How much is data centres?
Data centres are still under 5% of US electricity, but they explain about half of the recent growth, because everything else grew so little. Most of the jump since 2020 is AI servers; data centres were already growing slowly before, so the AI part is the extra on top of an existing trend. Estimates for 2017 range from 60 to 80 TWh; we use 70.
Source: LBNL, Jun 2026 / IEA, Apr 2025 / EIA
If AI falters, how much demand is left?
Two ways to look at it. Looking back: without data centres, US demand grew about 0.5% a year over 2017–2024, against 0.9% with them. Looking ahead: LBNL expects data centres to be about 33% of the growth from 2024 to 2030, so two-thirds would come from elsewhere (EVs, heat pumps, factories, air-conditioning). Either way, demand would keep growing without AI, but more slowly, and the equipment ordered for data centres would be the first to feel it.
The AI Cycle Watch looks at the same question from the other side: which layers get hit if the AI boom deflates.
Japan
Japan’s demand fell for years with a shrinking population and energy saving. The grid coordinator OCCTO now expects it to rise: summer peak demand from 158.8 GW in FY2025 to 164.6 GW in FY2035 (about 0.4% a year). New data centres and chip plants alone add 56.8 TWh by FY2035, 6.71% of national demand.
Source: OCCTO, Jan 2026
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Updated 29 Sep 2026 11:12 JST · US power data to May 2026 · metal prices to Aug 2026