STAGE 1 · GENERATION
What will make the extra power?
Key points
- Most of the extra power is made from gas. Solar and wind have grown too, but they stop at night or when the wind drops, and data centres run around the clock.
- The gas turbines are sold out: the biggest maker, GE Vernova, has orders worth 4.3 years of sales, up 37% in a year.
- In the eastern US, the price of securing future power-plant capacity is 11x what was paid for 2024/25. It hit the cap three times running and still fell short.
- In Japan 15 reactors are back online. Uranium is 2.0x its 2019 price after inflation.
How the US makes its power
| Source | 12 months to May 2019 | 12 months to May 2026 | Change (TWh) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas | 1,514 | 1,824 | +310 | 36.3% → 40.8% |
| Nuclear | 805 | 789 | -17 | 19.3% → 17.7% |
| Coal | 1,100 | 706 | -394 | 26.4% → 15.8% |
| Solar | 66 | 320 | +254 | 1.6% → 7.2% |
| Wind | 274 | 475 | +200 | 6.6% → 10.6% |
| Hydro | 292 | 259 | -33 | 7.0% → 5.8% |
Solar and wind are the fastest-growing sources, but they do not run at night or when the wind drops. Data centres need power around the clock, so the extra firm supply comes mostly from gas, which needs gas turbines, the equipment in shortest supply.
Source: EIA
Turbine makers are sold out
Show the numbers
| Quarter end | Backlog | Years of sales |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2024 | $116.3bn | 3.5 |
| Jun 2024 | $115.5bn | 3.4 |
| Sep 2024 | $117.7bn | 3.4 |
| Dec 2024 | $119.0bn | 3.4 |
| Mar 2025 | $123.4bn | 3.5 |
| Jun 2025 | $128.7bn | 3.5 |
| Sep 2025 | $135.3bn | 3.6 |
| Dec 2025 | $150.2bn | 3.9 |
| Mar 2026 | $163.3bn | 4.1 |
| Jun 2026 | $176.3bn | 4.3 |
Siemens Energy (end-June 2026)
Order backlog of €162bn, a record; €73bn in gas services alone
Source: Siemens Energy, Aug 2026
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (end-March 2026)
Order backlog of ¥13.2tn; over ¥5tn in gas-turbine combined-cycle plants alone, with 35 large turbines ordered in the year
Source: MHI, May 2026
US producer prices for turbines are 0% on 2019 after inflation (+1.9% in a year), much less than transformers or copper. Makers fix prices when orders are placed years ahead, so the shortage shows up as delivery dates and backlog, not in this index.
The price of future capacity in the eastern US
Show the numbers
| Delivery year | $/MW-day |
|---|---|
| 2022/23 | $50.00 |
| 2023/24 | $34.13 |
| 2024/25 | $28.92 |
| 2025/26 | $269.92 |
| 2026/27 | $329.17 |
| 2027/28 | $333.44 |
| 2028/29 | $325.00 |
The 2028/29 auction (July 2026) cleared at the cap for the third time running and still fell 6,831 MW short of the reliability requirement. Without the cap the price would have been $554.72.
Source: PJM, Jul 2026 / PJM
Nuclear and uranium
Japan
15 reactors have restarted (as of April 2026). Kashiwazaki-Kariwa 6 began commercial operation on 16 April 2026, and Hokkaido Electric's Tomari 3 aims to restart as early as possible in 2027.
Source: FEPC
United States
Nuclear output is flat (table above). Almost no new reactors are being built; the action is in licence extensions and restarts of closed units (such as Constellation's Crane, formerly Three Mile Island 1), sold to data centres on long contracts.
Source: FRED
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Updated 29 Sep 2026 11:12 JST · US power data to May 2026 · metal prices to Aug 2026