POWER WATCH · ELECTRIFICATION AND ITS BOTTLENECKS
When power runs short, the bottleneck gets expensive
For 14 years America used no more electricity. Now AI, EVs, new factories and air-conditioning are pushing demand up again, and the kit needed to make and carry the extra power cannot be built fast enough. This site follows that story stage by stage, from the power plant to the copper in the wires, and checks every morning where the squeeze is.
In three lines
- US electricity use barely grew for 14 years, then rose 6.8% from 2021. Data centres account for about half of the extra.
- What is running short: gas turbines (orders worth 4.3 years of output), transformers (about 2.5 years to arrive) and copper (2.2x its 2020 low after inflation).
- Japanese copper companies have moved with the Tokyo market more than with copper. The Tokyo fund that tracks copper itself (1693) cannot be held in a NISA.
What is happening, stage by stage
- DEMAND
Demand is growing again after 14 flat years
+6.8%US electricity use since 2021About half of the rise since 2017 is data centres, whose use grew 2.7x in 7 years. The rest is EVs, factories and air-conditioning.
- GENERATION
Gas turbines are sold out for years
4.3 yrsGE Vernova's order book, in years of salesRound-the-clock power for data centres comes mostly from gas. In the eastern US the price of securing future power-plant capacity is now 11x what was paid for 2024/25.
● Signs of strainDetails → - THE GRID
A big transformer takes two and a half years to arrive
128 weeksaverage lead time for large power transformersTransformer prices are 1.9x their 2019 level (1.4x after inflation). More power plants are waiting to be connected than are running today.
● Signs of strainDetails → - CABLES
Cables are dearer too
1.8xUS cable prices vs 20191.4x after inflation. Japan's cable makers sell fibre and power cable into data centres.
● Signs of strainDetails → - COPPER
Mines cannot keep up, and copper is near historic highs
2.2xvs the 2020 low, after inflationOnly in the 1970s oil shocks and the 2006–11 China boom was it dearer. A new mine takes 16 years, three big mines had accidents in 2025, and data centres are only about 1% of copper use: this is about electrification as a whole.
● Signs of strainDetails →
Is the premise holding?
Power demand is growing faster than generation and the grid can keep up
- Demand: US electricity use is still growing (+1.2% in the latest year).
- Supply: 4 of the 4 stages (Generation, The grid, Cables, Copper) show prices well above 2019 or fast-growing order books.
How this is decided is on the Method page.
What LBNL, the IEA, BloombergNEF, PJM and Citi say, checked against the data →
Where the price has risen most
Where something is short, its price rises or buyers are made to wait. After removing inflation, copper has risen most since 2019. Turbines are the opposite case: their price has hardly moved, because makers fixed it when the orders were taken years ago; the shortage shows up as waiting time instead.
Show the numbers
| Item | Now (2019 = 100) |
|---|---|
| Copper price | 182 |
| Switchgear prices | 149 |
| Transformer prices | 144 |
| Cable prices | 141 |
| Turbine and generator prices | 100 |
Riding it from Japan
There are Tokyo and US listings for every stage, from Mitsubishi Heavy and Hitachi to Fujikura and Sumitomo Metal Mining. But a company does not always move like the thing it sells: over the past two years, Japanese copper and grid companies moved more with the Tokyo market than with copper or with US power-equipment stocks. The page lists each one with what it has moved with, and whether it can go in a NISA.
This page organises information; it does not recommend buying or selling anything. Data belongs to each publisher and may contain errors or delays. Make your own investment decisions.
Updated 29 Sep 2026 11:12 JST · US power data to May 2026 · metal prices to Aug 2026