SIGNALS

What would change the picture

'US chips, China power' is today's pattern. These six numbers would move first if it began to change. Each is recalculated from the data every morning.

Key points

Three can tell us China is catching up on chips: its share of new compute, the gap in the largest training run, and the model gap.
Two can tell us the US is closing the power gap, or China losing its headroom: US growth relative to China's, and China's own growth.
One has already changed: China now builds most of its own AI chips, so US controls reach less and less.

Six signals

Signal	Now	State	If it moves
China's share of new AI computeShare of the AI chip compute shipped worldwide in a year that went to China	4.7% (prev. 6.5%)	Not moving	A rise would mean more domestic chips or looser controls, and the US chip lead starting to erode15% or more = changed; up on the year before = starting to move
Domestic share of China's chipsShare of China-bound compute from Huawei, Cambricon and other domestic designers	87.5% (prev. 56.6%)	Changed	The higher it is, the less US export controls can bite80% or more = changed; up on the year before = starting to move
Model gap (months)How many months earlier US models reached the level of China's best	4.4 months	Not moving	A shrinking gap would mean ingenuity is making up for the compute gapUnder 2 months = changed; under 4 = starting to move
Largest training run, US ÷ ChinaRatio of the compute used by each country's largest training run that year	50x	Not moving	A shrinking ratio would mean China can concentrate big compute, by clustering domestic chips and powerUnder 10x = changed; under 20x = starting to move
US generation growth vs China'sGrowth in US generation over 12 months divided by China's	23%	Not moving	A rise would mean the US is fixing its power shortfall (gas, nuclear, grid)50% or more = changed; 35% or more = starting to move
China's generation growthGeneration over the latest 12 months vs a year earlier	+5.7%	Not moving	A fall would mean China's power headroom thinning (a slowdown, or a pause in new capacity)Under 2% = changed; under 4% = starting to move

Timeline

Controls, Beijing's responses and power-related moves, newest first.

27 Sep 2026ChipsChina
China's industry ministry reportedly tells ByteDance, Alibaba and others it intends to approve purchases of Nvidia's RTX Pro 5500 (US export approval still unclear) Implicator, China signals it will approve Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 purchases (28 Sep 2026, following The Information)
24 Sep 2026ChipsBoth
Trump and Xi meet in Washington: an AI dialogue is set up, but no deal on chip controls Roll Call, AI export controls debate rages as Trump, Xi meet (23 Sep 2026)
9 Jul 2026ChipsChina
China reportedly to allow fewer than 200,000 H200s (under half of requests), for training only TrendForce
1 Jun 2026ChipsUS
Commerce: the licence rules also cover overseas arms of China-headquartered companies Al Jazeera, US says ban on AI chip shipments applies to Chinese firms outside China (1 Jun 2026)
15 May 2026ChipsUS
Commerce licenses H200 sales to about 10 Chinese firms (up to 75,000 each) TrendForce
2 Feb 2026PowerUS
SpaceX buys xAI, arguing that power on the ground will not suffice and pitching data centres in space Al Jazeera, Musk merges SpaceX and xAI firms, plans for space-based AI data centres (3 Feb 2026)
13 Jan 2026ChipsUS
Commerce revises its licence policy for H200-class chips; China's customs reportedly hold them back US BIS, Commerce revises license review policy for semiconductors exported to China (13 Jan 2026)
8 Dec 2025ChipsUS
President Trump says Nvidia may sell H200s to China, with 25% of proceeds to the US government US BIS, Commerce revises license review policy for semiconductors exported to China (13 Jan 2026)
4 Nov 2025PowerChina
Chinese local governments reportedly cut power bills by up to half for data centres using domestic chips Semafor
17 Sep 2025ChipsChina
Beijing reportedly tells big tech firms to stop buying Nvidia's China chips Bloomberg, China orders firms to stop buying Nvidia AI chip, FT says (17 Sep 2025)
10 Jun 2025ChipsChina
Huawei's Ren Zhengfei: chips are a generation behind, but clustering closes the gap (People's Daily) ChinaTalk, Huawei founder on US v China and basic research (translation of the People's Daily interview, 10 Jun 2025)
13 May 2025ChipsUS
The rule to control where AI chips go worldwide (AI Diffusion Rule) is withdrawn before it takes effect US BIS, Commerce announces rescission of the AI Diffusion Rule (13 May 2025)
9 Apr 2025ChipsUS
The China-only H20 now needs a licence too (Nvidia books a $4.5bn charge) NVIDIA 10-K
20 Jan 2025ModelsChina
DeepSeek-R1 released. A week later Nvidia's share price falls 17% in a day CNBC, Nvidia sheds almost $600 billion in market cap, biggest one-day loss in US history (27 Jan 2025)
2 Dec 2024ChipsUS
High-bandwidth memory (HBM) and more chipmaking tools added to the controls US BIS, FDP rule additions and refinements for advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items (2 Dec 2024)
17 Oct 2023ChipsUS
Controls tightened; Nvidia's cut-down China chips (A800, H800) are caught too US BIS, Commerce strengthens restrictions on advanced computing semiconductors (17 Oct 2023)
7 Oct 2022ChipsUS
The US restricts exports of advanced AI chips and chipmaking tools to China. The shape of the race changes from here US BIS, Implementation of Additional Export Controls (7 Oct 2022)

This page organises information; it does not recommend buying or selling anything. Data belongs to each publisher and may contain errors or delays. Quotes are taken from reports and transcripts; see the sources for the originals. Make your own investment decisions.

Updated 29 Sep 2026 12:24 JST · US power to Jun 2026, China power to May 2026 · models to 9 Sep 2026