MARKETS

How the market has priced the race

Share prices are a running vote on who is winning. We group US chip makers, China's domestic chip makers, and power-equipment makers in each country.

Key points

  1. Since the first US controls (7 Oct 2022): US chips +1,154%, Chinese domestic chips +1,118%. The market has rewarded both sides of the split.
  2. Since the DeepSeek shock, Chinese chips +229% vs US chips +171%; over the past year US chips +109% vs Chinese +34%.
  3. Power equipment: US +14%, China +37% since the DeepSeek shock. China's power builders have not been priced as AI winners.

Four groups since the first controls

Group index (7 Oct 2022 = 100, local currency, log scale)Equal-weighted average of three stocks per group.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Each stock

Since the first US controls (7 Oct 2022)Since just before the DeepSeek shock (24 Jan 2025)1 year
US-side chips+1,154%+171%+109%
NvidiaNVDA · USD+1,802%+61%+26%
TSMC (Taiwan, US listing)TSM · USD+590%+108%+68%
AMDAMD · USD+940%+395%+277%
Chinese domestic chips+1,118%+229%+34%
SMIC0981.HK · HKD+252%+47%-21%
Hua Hong Semiconductor1347.HK · HKD+491%+339%+47%
Cambricon688256.SS · CNY+2,596%+153%+17%
US power and equipment+733%+14%-1%
GE VernovaGEV · USD (listed 2024-03)+627%+127%+58%
VistraVST · USD+564%-27%-30%
Constellation EnergyCEG · USD+218%-24%-22%
Chinese power equipment+80%+37%+10%
NARI Technology600406.SS · CNY+19%0%+1%
Sieyuan Electric002028.SZ · CNY+223%+51%+16%
TBEA600089.SS · CNY+17%+48%+3%
S&P 500^GSPC+111%+26%+15%
China A-shares (CSI 300 ETF)510300.SS+26%+18%-4%

Price change including dividends, in each local currency (not converted to yen). Shanghai and Shenzhen shares (.SS/.SZ) are hard to buy from Japan; Hong Kong and US listings are available at major online brokers. Prices to 29 Sep 2026

Source: Yahoo Finance

This page organises information; it does not recommend buying or selling anything. Data belongs to each publisher and may contain errors or delays. Quotes are taken from reports and transcripts; see the sources for the originals. Make your own investment decisions.

Updated 29 Sep 2026 12:24 JST · US power to Jun 2026, China power to May 2026 · models to 9 Sep 2026