Data and method

Data fetched every morning

Source status

Figures entered by hand

• IEA, Energy and AI (April 2025)
• OIES, The China data centre advantage: hype versus reality (February 2026)
• Global Energy Monitor, China wasted enough wind and solar to cover all new power demand in H1 2026 (August 2026)
• Semafor, China slashes big data centers' electric bills (5 Nov 2025, following the FT)
• NVIDIA Form 10-K (fiscal 2026)
• TrendForce, China reportedly to allow NVIDIA H200 imports, but approvals may fall below 200K chips (9 Jul 2026, citing Reuters)

Quote sources are listed with each quote on the Insiders page; timeline sources with each event.

Method

• Generation: Ember's yearly totals. 'Latest 12 months' sums the monthly figures to the latest month and compares with the 12 months to the same month a year earlier (China's monthly data lag the US by about a month). New capacity is the change in installed capacity from the year before, by fuel; the total adds only the fuels that grew.
• Chip compute: Epoch AI's quarterly shipments by chip, in H100 equivalents (median estimates), summed by calendar year up to the last year for which every maker has a fourth quarter. China-bound = chips marked by Epoch AI as primarily for the Chinese market (Nvidia A800, H800, H20; AMD MI308X; Huawei; Cambricon). Domestic = Huawei and Cambricon.
• Per chip: H100 equivalents and rated power (TDP) from Epoch AI's chip table. Power per 1,000 H100s' worth: total power of the large AI data centres Epoch AI tracks in each country divided by their total compute.
• Model gap: for each new best Chinese model on Epoch AI's ECI, the date the best US model first reached that score; the gap is the time between. 'Now' uses China's current best. Largest training run: highest training compute among Epoch AI's notable models released that year in each country.
• Premise check ('the US leads on chips, China on power'): the chip side holds if China-bound compute was under 15% of the latest year's shipments and the US's largest training run used 10x or more China's; the power side holds if China's generation grew by at least twice as many TWh as the US's over the latest 12 months. Both hold = Holding; one = Watch; neither = Broken. The same result is sent to the After Deal home page (meta.json).
• Signals: thresholds are set in analysis.signals and shown on the Signals page. They are rules of thumb, not statistical tests.
• Share prices: daily closes adjusted for dividends and splits. A group index averages the day's change of the members that traded, so stocks listed later join when they list.
• Quotes: taken from the linked reports and transcripts; Japanese versions are our translations. No AI is used to write the site; the checks against data are computed from the figures above.

Updates

The data is fetched and the site rebuilt every morning (Japan time). Ember updates about monthly, Epoch AI irregularly (usually several times a month), and share prices daily.

Operator

• Operator: After Deal operator (an individual)
• No connection with any organisation, including the operator's employer, and none of its work product or data is used.
• Nothing on this site is investment advice. Data belongs to each publisher and may contain errors or delays.

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