Data sources

Source status

How figures are checked

AI can misread or invent numbers, so each figure must come with the page it was taken from and the sentence it appears in. A script then downloads that page (including PDFs) and checks that the sentence, or at least the number, is really there. Figures that fail are marked ? on the Companies page, and a company whose output or AISC fails gets the Figures unconfirmed flag.

Method and assumptions

• Theoretical share move at gold +10%: margin leverage × 10% × (enterprise value ÷ market value). If the market keeps valuing a company on the same multiple (EV to cash flow, or NAV), enterprise value rises in step with cash flow, and because net debt does not change, the equity moves more. Tax cancels out in the percentages.
• Extra FCF yield: annual output × (10% of the gold price) × (share of revenue linked to gold) × (1 − price-linked costs 5%) × (1 − hedged share) × (1 − tax) ÷ market value. Tax is 30% for producers and 20% for royalty companies; royalty companies have no price-linked costs.
• Annual output is the midpoint of this year's guidance, or the latest quarter × 4 (half-year × 2) without it. AISC is the latest quarter's actual, which already includes royalties at recent gold prices.
• Gold-linked share of revenue: 100% where AISC is reported on a by-product basis per gold ounce; for per-GEO reporters and royalty companies, the gold plus silver share of revenue.
• Margin leverage: gold × linked share ÷ (gold − AISC). Share beta: regression of weekly USD share-price returns on gold futures (two years and one year).
• Implied gold: the gold price at which enterprise value (market value + debt − cash) equals annual output × margin × (1 − tax) × an annuity factor. The discount rate is 5% real plus a country premium (+2% medium risk, +5% high risk) weighted by production. 5% real is the rate precious-metals analysts commonly use for NAVs of operating assets in stable jurisdictions, with country risk handled as a premium (CIBC used 7%, 5% plus 2%, for Turkish assets in a 2020 merger opinion). The +5% for high-risk countries is the operator's judgement. Years = reserves ÷ annual output, uncapped (analysts' NAVs run each mine's life-of-mine plan and add resources outside the plan separately at a price per ounce). Gold and costs are held at today's level in real terms; growth capex, resources outside reserves and closure costs are left out. Not shown for royalty companies or where production by country is unknown.
• Quality: the average of five 0–1 scores (reserve life, balance sheet, jurisdiction, delivery on guidance, cost control) × 100. Country risk tiers are the operator's judgement (high: Sahel juntas, sanctioned countries, countries that have revoked mining permits; low: US, Canada, Australia, the Nordics; medium: the rest).
• Premise check: GDX ÷ gold uses daily closes; yearly changes use calendar-year closes; beta uses 52 weekly returns; industry margin is production-weighted over producers that also report AISC for the same quarter a year earlier.
• Companies reporting in other currencies (such as the Australians) are converted to US dollars at today's rate. London prices are in pence.
• ETF company types and regions are classified by Claude, one holding at a time (new holdings weekly). Listing markets come from VanEck's tickers.

References

• CIBC fairness opinion (SSR Mining / Alacer Gold circular, 2020): NAV at 5% real, 7% for Turkish assets
• RBC fairness opinion (Coeur / New Gold proxy, 2025): NAV at 5% real and at WACC
• VanEck GDX holdings
• VanEck GDXJ holdings
• World Gold Council: AISC guidance note

Updates

Prices and ETF holdings are fetched and the site rebuilt every morning (Japan time). Company results are researched once a week, when a new quarter is likely to be out.

Operator

• Operator: After Deal operator (an individual)
• No connection with any organisation, including the operator's employer, and none of its work product or data is used.
• Nothing on this site is investment advice. Data belongs to each publisher and may contain errors or delays.

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