Ranking

Ranked by how far each share price should rise if gold gains 10% (+$421 from today), worked out from the latest results. Costs barely move with the gold price, so the thinner the margin the faster profits grow; net debt amplifies the move for shareholders. Next to it is how each share has actually moved with gold over two years. Quality and value sit alongside, because the most leveraged miners are also the first to struggle when gold falls.

Should rise is calculated from results: how much the per-ounce margin grows when gold rises 10% (after hedges, by-products and price-linked royalties), scaled up for net debt (enterprise value ÷ market value), assuming the market keeps valuing the company on the same multiple. Actually moved is the two-year beta to gold × 10%. Quality is a 0–100 score for reserves, balance sheet, jurisdiction, delivery and cost control.

Leverage against quality

Try a gold price

Pick a gold price. The table re-sorts by cash-flow yield at that price. At higher prices the high-cost, high-leverage names climb; below today's price they drop first.

Model cash flow = annual output × (gold − AISC, adjusted for hedges, by-products and price-linked royalties) × (1 − tax), divided by market value. It ignores growth capex and interest, so it overstates what companies actually pay out; use it to compare, not as a forecast. Bank forecasts come from the forecast database on Gold Premise Watch (latest target from each bank in the past six months). Gold Premise Watch: forecasts

By type of company

What mining analysts look at

1. AISC (all-in sustaining cost)

   What it costs to keep producing an ounce: operating costs, royalties, sustaining capex and overhead, but not new mines. Gold price minus AISC is the margin per ounce. Definitions differ between companies, and netting off by-products such as copper changes it a lot.

2. Margin leverage

   How much the per-ounce margin grows for a 1% rise in gold. With gold at $4,000 and AISC at $2,000 the margin is $2,000; a 1% ($40) rise lifts it 2% (2x). At an AISC of $3,000 it is 4x. Higher-cost producers have more leverage.

3. How far shares should rise when gold gains 10%

   Margin leverage × 10%, scaled up for debt (enterprise value ÷ market value). If the market keeps valuing cash flow (or NAV) on the same multiple, enterprise value rises in step with the margin, and because debt does not change the equity moves more. The ranking on this site is in this order. Real share prices also move on silver and copper, the wider market and company news, so compare it with how the shares have actually moved (two-year beta).

4. Extra FCF yield

   How much yearly after-tax cash flow rises when gold gains 10%, as a share of market value. It is not the size of the share move; it measures how cheaply you are buying the same gain from gold.

5. Reserve life and the price behind it

   Reserves divided by yearly output: how many years the mines can keep going. Reserves count only ore that pays at the company's chosen price (often $1,500–2,500), so at today's price more would pay. A lower assumed price leaves more room for reserves to grow.

6. Hedging

   Output sold forward at today's price misses any rise. It is common where lenders required it; the majors rarely hedge.

7. By-products

   Companies that also mine copper, silver or zinc are less tied to gold. Where by-product revenue is netted off AISC, a fall in that metal's price pushes AISC up.

8. Jurisdiction

   Military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger rewrote mining codes, halted mines and seized gold. Governments want a bigger share most when gold is high (higher taxes and royalties).

9. Delivery

   Did the company hit the output and cost guidance it gave at the start of the year? Those that miss tend to squander a high gold price on operating problems, and the market discounts them.

10. Implied gold price

    The gold price at which today's enterprise value (market value plus net debt) would be paid back by after-tax margins until reserves run out. The discount rate is 5% real plus a country premium (+2% medium risk, +5% high risk). 5% real is what precious-metals analysts commonly use for NAVs of operating assets in stable jurisdictions (CIBC used 7%, 5% plus 2%, for Turkish assets), and gold feasibility studies usually report after-tax NPV at 5%. Rates of 8–10% appear when discounting at a company's cost of capital (WACC), for base metals such as copper, or for projects still in development. Below today's gold price means the shares are not pricing in current gold. Resources outside reserves are left out, so companies with large resources come out higher.

11. Royalty and streaming companies

    They fund mines in return for the right to buy part of the output cheaply (a stream) or a cut of revenue (a royalty). They do not run mines, so cost inflation barely touches them, but their leverage to gold is lower: sturdier when gold falls, usually left behind by producers when it rises.

Quality score and flags

Quality is the average of these five, each 0 to 1, scaled to 100 (at least three needed):

• Reserve life: 0 at five years, full marks at 15+.
• Balance sheet: Full marks with net cash, 0 at net debt of 2x annual operating cash flow.
• Jurisdiction: Production-weighted risk tier (low, medium, high) of the countries it mines in.
• Delivery on guidance: Full marks if last year's output reached the bottom of guidance and AISC stayed under its top.
• Cost control: Full marks for AISC up 5% or less on a year earlier, 0 at +25%.

• HedgedPart of output is sold forward, so that part misses a higher gold price.
• High costAISC above 70% of the gold price: profits jump when gold rises, but it is first in line for losses when gold falls.
• Short reserve lifeReserves cover under eight years of output; production shrinks unless new mines are added.
• Country risk30% or more of output comes from countries with a record of expropriation, sudden mining-code changes or sanctions.
• Heavy debtNet debt is more than 1.5 times a year of operating cash flow.
• Copper-heavy20% or more of revenue is copper, so the copper price matters as well as gold.
• Figures unconfirmedProduction or AISC could not be matched on the source page (paywall, blocked fetch). Check against company filings before relying on it.

Not investment advice. The ranking measures sensitivity to the gold price on stated assumptions; it is not a view on whether any share is a buy.