Data sources
| EDINET (Financial Services Agency) | Annual securities reports (XBRL converted to CSV): major shareholders, officers' holdings, shareholder mix, parent company, key financials. The list of all filings, including large-shareholding reports, comes from TOB Watch's pipeline. |
|---|---|
| TOB Watch | Tender offers and MBOs since Sep 2021, with the acquirer type (parent, management, private equity, strategic) read from the filings. |
| Yahoo Finance | Current share price and market value, used for today’s price-to-book and cash ratios. |
Method and limits
- Test: the first annual report each listed company filed between 27 Sep 2021 and 26 Sep 2022 (3,860 companies), matched with tender offers and MBOs announced after the filing (359 targets). The follow-up period is roughly four to five years, depending on the company.
- Traits: parent company (a corporate holder with over 50%, or an unlisted parent named in the report), largest corporate holder, founder family stake (individuals in the top 10 plus companies bearing an individual holder's surname or described as asset-management vehicles), officers' shares ÷ shares issued, price-to-book (PER × EPS from the report = year-end price, ÷ book value per share), net cash (cash + short-term securities − borrowings and bonds + 70% of investment securities) ÷ market value, market value, activist filings in the prior two years, ROE and equity ratio. Foreign ownership showed no difference in the test (every group 0.96–1.07x the average), so it is left out.
- Model: logistic regression with L2 regularisation, one overall and one per type (parent, MBO, private equity, strategic) trained on that type's deals only. Accuracy is measured by five-fold cross-validation.
- Today's candidates: the model applied to each company's latest annual report, with price-to-book, market value and the cash ratio updated to today's share price. 'Past hit rate' is the actual target rate of companies in the same score decile in the test.
- Limits: many targets had stable traits long before the bid (listed subsidiaries, for example), which makes them easier to spot; sudden bids are harder. Holder types are assigned from names. The activist list is the operator's judgement. Anything outside the filings (private talks, share-price moves, industry consolidation) is not included. The test covers one period only and may not hold in another.
Updates
Every morning: new annual reports and large-shareholding reports, share prices, scores. No AI is used on this site; all numbers are calculated from filings and prices.
Disclaimer
This site ranks listed companies by how closely their public filings (annual reports and large-shareholding reports) resemble past tender-offer and MBO targets. It is not a prediction that any company will be bought, is not based on any non-public information, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.
Operator
- Operator: After Deal operator (an individual)
- No connection with any organisation, including the operator's employer, and none of its work product or data is used.
- Nothing on this site is investment advice. Data belongs to each publisher and may contain errors or delays.
Corrections and questions: contact form / About After Deal
Updated 29 Sep 2026 00:48 JST