Ingredion IncINGR · NYSE

Why the market may be pricing it low

• Sales rise or fall as raw material costs pass through to prices, so the market treats it as commodity-linked, not a growth business.

  net sales decreased 3 percent to $7.2 billion from 2024, which was primarily due to unfavorable price mix, including the pass through of lower corn costs, and lower volumes.MD&A

• Repeated plant closures and impairments in Canada, the UK, and Brazil reinforce the view that this is a mature industry still restructuring.

  impairment charges for the cessation of operations at our manufacturing facilities in Vanscoy, Canada; Goole, United Kingdom; and Alcantara, BrazilMD&A

• Selling starches and sweeteners across 60-plus industries, the company is treated as an undifferentiated commodity ingredient maker.

  We develop, produce and sell a variety of food and beverage ingredients, primarily starches and sweeteners, for a broad range of customers in over 60 industries worldwide.Business

What could close the gap

• A May 2026 exit/impairment 8-K filing (Item 2.05/2.06) could mark the end of restructuring if closures are now complete.

  2026-05-05 Item 2.05,2.068-K filings

• Results from the May 2026 shareholder meeting (Item 5.07) could become a turning point for capital allocation policy.

  2026-05-21 Item 5.078-K filings

• Adjusted ROIC has risen to 15.5%, well above the 10% target, and wider recognition of this could shift perception.

  Our long-term objective is to maintain an Adjusted ROIC in excess of 10.0 percent. For 2025, we achieved an Adjusted ROIC of 15.5 percentRisk factors

How a buyer could still lose (value trap)

• The only unmet Piotroski criterion is asset turnover improvement, hinting capital efficiency gains may be stalling despite strong earnings.

  Based on the figures below

• Restructuring and impairment charges from plant closures recur yearly, so underlying profitability may be weaker than adjusted figures suggest.

  In 2025, we recorded $13 million of pre-tax restructuring charges primarily related to accelerated depreciation and decommissioning costs for previously announced plant closures and restructuring activities that occurred during the year.Risk factors

Financial quality (Piotroski F-score)

• ✓Profitable (ROA > 0)
• ✓Positive operating cash flow
• ✓ROA up on last year
• ✓Cash flow exceeds net profit
• ✓Leverage down on last year
• ✓Current ratio up on last year
• ✓No new shares issued
• ✓Gross margin up on last year
• ✗Asset turnover up on last year

Scored out of the checks with data, scaled to 9. Compares the latest year with the year before.

Figures

Sales

$7.2bn

Operating profit

$860m

Net profit

$592m

Operating cash flow

$805m

Cash

$948m

Debt

$1.8bn

Equity

$4.5bn

Latest twelve months to 2026-06-30; F-score for the fiscal year to 2025-12-31