Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC · NYSE

Why the market may be pricing it low

• The company admits it produces none of its own crude feedstock, leaving it structurally disadvantaged versus integrated majors that do.

  we do not produce any of our crude oil feedstocksBusiness

• Competitors that produce their own crude are better positioned to withstand periods of depressed refining margins or feedstock shortages.

  Competitors that produce crude oil are at times better positioned to withstand periods of depressed refining marginsBusiness

• Tightening state-level GHG cap-and-trade rules are seen as likely to raise facility operating and capital costs, weighing on the outlook.

  these state measures could result in increased costs to operate and maintain our facilitiesRisk factors

What could close the gap

• An April 2026 8-K disclosing entry into/termination of a material agreement and creation of a financial obligation suggests capital structure changes are underway.

  2026-04-13 Item 1.01,1.02,2.03,9.018-K filings

• Consecutive officer-change 8-Ks in Nov and Dec 2025 could signal a management shakeup that leads to a rethink of capital allocation policy.

  2025-11-04 Item 5.02,8.01,9.01 / 2025-12-18 Item 5.02,8.01,9.018-K filings

How a buyer could still lose (value trap)

• The 44.8% ROE rests on strong cyclical refining margins; given the firm lacks captive crude supply, a margin downturn could sharply cut earnings and make the 5.7x P/B hard to justify.

  Based on the figures below

• The Piotroski F-Score is 8/9 but fails the declining-leverage check, a possible sign that balance-sheet improvement is losing momentum.

  Based on the figures below

Financial quality (Piotroski F-score)

• ✓Profitable (ROA > 0)
• ✓Positive operating cash flow
• ✓ROA up on last year
• ✓Cash flow exceeds net profit
• ✗Leverage down on last year
• ✓Current ratio up on last year
• ✓No new shares issued
• –Gross margin up on last yearno data
• –Asset turnover up on last yearno data

Scored out of the checks with data, scaled to 9. Compares the latest year with the year before.

Figures

Sales

$77.4bn

Operating profit

$14.1bn

Net profit

$8.6bn

Operating cash flow

$17.1bn

Cash

$7.8bn

Debt

$3.3bn

Equity

$19.1bn

Latest twelve months to 2026-06-30; F-score for the fiscal year to 2025-12-31