Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.PARR · NYSE

Why the market may be pricing it low

• Recent profit growth includes a one-time $199.5 million gain from an EPA small refinery exemption, which the market does not treat as recurring earning power.

  recording a corresponding gain of $199.5 million in Net Income on our consolidated statements of operations for the year ended December 31, 2025MD&A

• The Wyoming refinery actually shut down for 66 days after an operational incident, so the market prices in the accident-prone nature of refining.

  Our Wyoming refinery experienced an operational incident on the evening of February 12, 2025, and remained safely idled during repair and recovery work through late April 2025MD&A

What could close the gap

• The Renewable Fuels Facility JV with Mitsubishi and ENEOS is expected to start operations in H1 2026, which could shift the narrative from a pure cyclical refiner to a diversified growth company.

  The Renewable Fuels Facility is expected to commence operations in the first half of 2026MD&A

• The EPA has not yet ruled on the 2025 small refinery exemption; a determination would either resolve doubt about the one-off gain or confirm it was temporary.

  As of December 31, 2025, the EPA has not made a determination with respect to small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance yearMD&A

• An 8-K covering an executive/board matter (Item 5.02) was filed on September 28, 2026, and a leadership change could signal a strategic shift.

  2026-09-28 Item 5.02,8.01,9.018-K filings

How a buyer could still lose (value trap)

• Recent operating profit is more than double the 3-year average, driven by a one-off regulatory gain and refinery recovery; if these fade, the low 4.6x PER would prove justified.

  Based on the figures below

• With cash of $185M against debt of $739M, net debt is significant; if the one-off-inflated 43.2% ROE fades, thin financial cushion would become apparent.

  Based on the figures below

Financial quality (Piotroski F-score)

• ✓Profitable (ROA > 0)
• ✓Positive operating cash flow
• ✓ROA up on last year
• ✓Cash flow exceeds net profit
• ✓Leverage down on last year
• ✗Current ratio up on last year
• ✓No new shares issued
• –Gross margin up on last yearno data
• –Asset turnover up on last yearno data

Scored out of the checks with data, scaled to 9. Compares the latest year with the year before.

Figures

Sales

$2.6bn

Operating profit

$1.2bn

Net profit

$857m

Operating cash flow

$555m

Cash

$185m

Debt

$739m

Equity

$2.0bn

Latest twelve months to 2026-06-30; F-score for the fiscal year to 2025-12-31