THE SUPPLY SIDE
Checking the other sites’ premises from the supply side
Most of After Deal looks at demand: will people want more gold, more AI, more electricity? The capital cycle asks the other question: is anyone building enough to meet it? When suppliers hold back, a good story can last for years; when they pile in, it ends even if demand keeps growing.
Gold Miners Watch: “miners are holding back”
Gold miners are spending 1.38x their depreciation, against 2.9x at the 2008 peak and a median of 1.31x since 2008.
Show the numbers
| Year | Gold miners | Copper miners |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2.91 | 1.60 |
| 2009 | 2.12 | 1.52 |
| 2010 | 1.42 | 1.45 |
| 2011 | 2.56 | 2.13 |
| 2012 | 2.65 | 3.23 |
| 2013 | 1.28 | 4.30 |
| 2014 | 0.90 | 2.03 |
| 2015 | 1.15 | 1.87 |
| 2016 | 0.87 | 1.16 |
| 2017 | 0.97 | 1.01 |
| 2018 | 1.16 | 1.22 |
| 2019 | 0.96 | 1.52 |
| 2020 | 0.85 | 1.41 |
| 2021 | 1.12 | 1.46 |
| 2022 | 1.34 | 1.82 |
| 2023 | 1.42 | 1.86 |
| 2024 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
| 2025 | 1.42 | 1.50 |
The last big spending waves were gold miners in 2008 (2.9x depreciation) and copper in 2013 (4.3x). In the five years after 2011, US mining shares fell 49% behind the market. With gold at record prices, gold miners now spend 1.38x and copper miners 1.56x: more than in the lean years of 2014–20, but far below the old peaks. But spending has crept above its median since 2008 (1.31x), so ‘holding back’ is no longer quite true. What to watch: a jump towards 2 times, especially through acquisitions or big new mines.
AI Cycle Watch: “AI spending keeps going”
Yes: data-centre spending is 3.5x depreciation, up from 2.9x a year earlier. But in the past, technology industries investing this heavily trailed afterwards.
Show the numbers
| Year | Hyperscalers (data centres) | Chipmakers with fabs |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2.08 | 1.10 |
| 2009 | 1.70 | 0.74 |
| 2010 | 1.31 | 0.97 |
| 2011 | 1.49 | 1.69 |
| 2012 | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| 2013 | 1.59 | 1.29 |
| 2014 | 1.59 | 1.30 |
| 2015 | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| 2016 | 1.41 | 1.49 |
| 2017 | 1.38 | 1.30 |
| 2018 | 1.46 | 1.13 |
| 2019 | 1.25 | 1.62 |
| 2020 | 1.66 | 1.54 |
| 2021 | 2.02 | 2.01 |
| 2022 | 1.97 | 2.50 |
| 2023 | 1.75 | 1.83 |
| 2024 | 2.20 | 1.47 |
| 2025 | 2.90 | 1.52 |
The AI Cycle Watch assumes the spending continues. It does: the five cloud giants spent $467bn in their latest year, 3.5x their depreciation. But in capital-cycle terms this is the classic warning sign. Over 75 years, technology industries whose investment was this high relative to their own past trailed the market afterwards by about 7% a year more than after their lean years. The warning is not about demand for AI: it is that so much capacity is being built at once that the returns on it may fall, as with fibre in 2000.
Chipmakers are also investing above their usual level, but below their 2022 peak.
Power Watch: “power equipment is the bottleneck”
The buyers (utilities) are spending 2.7x depreciation, a record. But the makers have also stepped up, to 2.2x, the most since at least 2008: new capacity is on its way.
Show the numbers
| Year | Power equipment makers | Utilities (the buyers) |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 0.78 | 2.25 |
| 2009 | 0.48 | 2.01 |
| 2010 | 0.99 | 1.92 |
| 2011 | 1.42 | 2.13 |
| 2012 | 1.47 | 2.00 |
| 2013 | 1.25 | 1.94 |
| 2014 | 1.17 | 2.01 |
| 2015 | 1.07 | 2.21 |
| 2016 | 1.03 | 2.39 |
| 2017 | 1.02 | 2.05 |
| 2018 | 1.05 | 2.05 |
| 2019 | 1.08 | 1.97 |
| 2020 | 0.85 | 1.84 |
| 2021 | 1.12 | 1.66 |
| 2022 | 0.95 | 2.12 |
| 2023 | 1.31 | 2.29 |
| 2024 | 1.25 | 2.20 |
| 2025 | 1.83 | 2.58 |
Power Watch finds transformers, turbines and cables in short supply. A bottleneck lasts as long as the makers do not add capacity. For most of 2008–24 they spent roughly their depreciation, while the buyers, utilities, spent about twice theirs. That is changing: the makers now spend 2.2x their depreciation, the most in the data. The biggest spenders are GE Vernova (2.5x), Eaton (2.0x), Vertiv (3.6x). New capacity takes time to come on stream, so the shortage need not end soon, but this is the first sign from the supply side that it will not last for ever.
How the verdicts are decided
- Miners: holding if gold miners’ ratio is at or below its median since 2008; weakening if it is in the top third of those years; watch otherwise.
- AI: holding if data-centre capex over depreciation is higher than a year earlier and in the top third since 2008; watch otherwise. The capital-cycle warning is shown alongside, not mixed into the verdict.
- Power equipment: holding if the makers’ ratio is not in the top third since 2008 (they are not racing to add capacity); watch if it is.
Source: SEC EDGAR
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Updated 30 Sep 2026 01:15 JST · company filings to Aug 2026 · industry history to 2024