Where each industry stands in its cycle

Gold miners

Despite the gold price, miners remember 2011–12, when mines bought at the top were written down, and have kept spending in check. A new mine takes over a decade from discovery to production.

In the long run (BEA, mining), the industry’s ratio in 2024 was 1.45x, at 58 on a 0–100 scale against its previous 20 years. In the past, five-year returns after heavy years were 3.2% a year worse than after light years.

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Copper miners

Copper is the metal of electrification. In 2012–13 capex topped four times depreciation, and prices and shares collapsed in 2015–16. Today it is less than half that peak.

In the long run (BEA, mining), the industry’s ratio in 2024 was 1.45x, at 58 on a 0–100 scale against its previous 20 years. In the past, five-year returns after heavy years were 3.2% a year worse than after light years.

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Oil and gas

Since the 2014 crash oil companies have put shareholder payouts first and spent less than their depreciation. In capital-cycle terms, this is the side where supply is being starved.

In the long run (BEA, oil & gas), the industry’s ratio in 2024 was 0.93x, at 32 on a 0–100 scale against its previous 20 years. In the past, five-year returns after heavy years were 3.7% a year worse than after light years.

Power equipment makers

Makers of transformers, switchgear, gas turbines and data-centre power kit. For years they spent about as much as their depreciation; since 2025 they have been adding factories.

In the long run (BEA, electrical equipment), the industry’s ratio in 2024 was 1.11x, at 79 on a 0–100 scale against its previous 20 years. In the past, five-year returns after heavy years were 0.9% a year worse than after light years.

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Utilities (the buyers)

Utilities earn a regulated return on what they invest, so heavy spending does not necessarily hurt their shares (it did not in the test). Here they stand for the buyers of power equipment.

In the long run (BEA, utilities), the industry’s ratio in 2024 was 2.20x, at 100 on a 0–100 scale against its previous 20 years. In the past, five-year returns after heavy years were 0.2% a year better than after light years.

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Chipmakers with fabs

Chipmakers that own fabs. The 2021–22 shortage pushed capex to 2.5 times depreciation, followed by a glut in 2023. TSMC’s latest annual figures are not yet in SEC’s machine-readable data.

In the long run (BEA, chips & electronics), the industry’s ratio in 2024 was 1.01x, at 63 on a 0–100 scale against its previous 20 years. In the past, five-year returns after heavy years were 5.1% a year worse than after light years.

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Hyperscalers (data centres)

Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle. AI data centres have pushed capex beyond three times depreciation. BEA’s long-run industry (data processing and hosting) ends in 2024 and does not yet show this peak.

In the long run (BEA, it & business services), the industry’s ratio in 2024 was 1.91x, at 32 on a 0–100 scale against its previous 20 years. In the past, five-year returns after heavy years were 4.2% a year worse than after light years.

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