Data sources

Source status

Method and limits

• Overlays: closes on Netscape's IPO (9 Aug 1995) and ChatGPT's launch (30 Nov 2022) are set to 100 and plotted by months elapsed. A different starting point would change the picture.
• Heat check: IT investment share and computer investment growth come from BEA quarterly data; the largest company's value is the latest price × shares (SEC) ÷ nominal GDP. For Cisco in 2000 we use the reported $555bn.
• Warning signs: the policy rate against a year earlier; the high-yield spread against its six-month low; the big-five ratio over four quarters; the chip index against its 200-day average; the largest chip stock against its 52-week high.
• Filings: quarterly values are derived from differences of year-to-date XBRL figures and summed over four quarters. Tag names vary by company, so the candidate with the latest data is used. Where short-term investments cannot be found, net cash is left blank.
• The 2000 drawdown table lists only companies still listed today (survivorship bias). Bankruptcies are not in it, so actual losses at the time were larger.

Updates

Prices and macro data are fetched and the site rebuilt every morning (Japan time). Filings update when companies report. The history and comparison text is revised by hand.

Operator

• Operator: After Deal operator (an individual)
• No connection with any organisation, including the operator's employer, and none of its work product or data is used.
• Nothing on this site is investment advice. Data belongs to each publisher and may contain errors or delays.

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