1970s-style
mid-way through the big wave
- In 5 yrs
- $6,536
- 7-yr high
- $23,343May 2033
- Worst fall
- -40%
Aligned to Jul 1973, when oil took off. A -40% fall on the way, then a huge final surge
OUTLOOK
Where gold could go: ranges and paths
Nobody can call the direction of gold a year ahead. What past data can measure is how far it tends to move, and where each road would lead.
Middle case in 1 year
$4,397
+6% from today’s $4,150
In 1 year, 8 times in 10
$3,568–$5,875
1 in 2: $3,932–$5,122
Chance of a rise in 1 year
62%
= how often gold has risen in a year. Direction can’t be called
Middle case in 5 years
$5,619
8 in 10: $3,098–$11,138
In three lines
- The middle case a year out is $4,397. The direction can’t be called: the 62% chance of a rise is just how often gold has risen in a year.
- The road matters most: mid-way through a 1970s-style wave gold reaches $23,343 within seven years, a 2000s-style climb peaks at $7,976, and if today is the top, five years on it is $1,863–$3,108.
- The near-dated bullish calls have almost no precedent.
The price ruler: the range of past moves, and where the bullish forecasts sit
$5,200–$5,4004$6,0001$7,8001$10,0001
Today $4,150
1 year
$3,568$5,875
5 years
$3,098$11,138
$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$8,000$10,000
1 in 28 in 10MiddleBullish forecasts (25%+ above today)
Log scale (equal widths are equal ratios). Every one- and five-year move in monthly averages since 1971, applied to today’s price.
1. The range of past moves
The range of past moves (USD, log scale)
Gold (monthly average)8 in 101 in 2Middle
TestedBuilt each month from 1990 using only the past known at the time, the 8-in-10 range caught the price a year later 93% of the time (a little wide). Narrowing by economic conditions or the stretch looked good in hindsight but made forecasts at the time worse.
Show the test
| One-year forecasts | Inside 1-in-2 | Inside 8-in-10 | Misses when narrowed (real policy rate / stretch) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990– | 64% | 93% | +0% / +5% |
| 2000– | 59% | 92% | +4% / +13% |
| 2009– | 54% | 89% | +2% / +12% |
The right column: size of misses using only past moves from the same group (plus = worse than using all).
2. Five paths
Past paths replayed from today’s price: yardsticks, not forecasts. If we are on this road, this is where it leads. In the 1970s gold first stood as far above its long trend as now in Dec 1979.
1970s-style
the final spike
- In 5 yrs
- $3,610
- 7-yr high
- $7,146Feb 2027
- Worst fall
- -56%
Aligned to when gold had risen 3.5x from its 1976 low, as now. The top comes in Feb 2027, then -56%
Tightening
from the 1980 top
- In 5 yrs
- $1,863
- 7-yr high
- $4,150today
- Worst fall
- -56%
Assumes today is the top and replays the moves from January 1980: a long slide
Tightening
from the 2011 top
- In 5 yrs
- $3,108
- 7-yr high
- $4,150today
- Worst fall
- -39%
Assumes today is the top and replays the moves from Sep 2011
2000s-style
a steady climb
- In 5 yrs
- $7,327
- 7-yr high
- $7,976Jun 2030
- Worst fall
- -34%
Aligned to Feb 2008, when gold had risen as much from its low around 2000. Today’s rise has come at about this pace
Show the numbers (1, 3, 5, 7 years)
| Path (alignment) | 1 yr | 3 yrs | 5 yrs | 7 yrs | 7-yr high | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970s: mid-way through the big waveAligned to the month oil prices first rose more than 30% in a year (1973-07). Oil is rising again now | $4,945 | $4,081 | $6,536 | $22,236 | $23,343May 2033 | -40% |
| 1970s: the final spikeAligned to the month gold had risen 3.5x from its 1976 low (1976-08), as it has now | $6,997 | $4,467 | $3,610 | $4,489 | $7,146Feb 2027 | -56% |
| Tightening: from the 1980 topAssumes today is the top and replays the moves from 1980-01 | $3,424 | $2,957 | $1,863 | $2,508 | $4,150today | -56% |
| Tightening: from the 2011 topAssumes today is the top and replays the moves from 2011-09 | $4,087 | $2,897 | $3,108 | $2,806 | $4,150today | -39% |
| 2000s: a steady climbAligned to the month gold had risen 3.5x from its low around 2000 (1999-07), as it has now | $4,244 | $6,189 | $7,327 | $5,523 | $7,976Jun 2030 | -34% |
Past monthly-average moves applied to today’s price; highs and lows within a month swing further. US dollars, not adjusted for inflation.
3. Which road the bullish forecasts need
The near-dated bullish calls have almost no precedent.
- $10,000+141%Jim Rickardsby Jun 20270%past paths that reached it in time1970s, mid-wave Nov 2032
- $7,800+88%Luke Gromenby Aug 203133%past paths that reached it in time1970s, mid-wave Feb 20322000s-style May 2030
- $6,000+45%Nomi Prinsby Dec 20260%past paths that reached it in time1970s, mid-wave Mar 20281970s, final spike Feb 20272000s-style Jul 2029
- $5,400+30%UBSby Sep 202716%past paths that reached it in time1970s, mid-wave Jul 20271970s, final spike Feb 20272000s-style Feb 2029
- $5,400+30%ANZby Jul 202711%past paths that reached it in time1970s, mid-wave Jul 20271970s, final spike Feb 20272000s-style Feb 2029
- $5,300+28%Wells Fargo Investment Instituteby Dec 202726%past paths that reached it in time1970s, mid-wave Jul 20271970s, final spike Feb 20272000s-style Feb 2029
- $5,200+25%UBSby Jun 202712%past paths that reached it in time1970s, mid-wave Jul 20271970s, final spike Feb 20272000s-style Feb 2029
Targets are gold forecasts on the Forecasts page at least 25% above today. The bar shows, for every starting month since 1971, how often the monthly average reached the target before the deadline (intramonth highs are not counted). On the right: the first month each path gets there.
4. Which road the signs point to
Short-term signs point to the 1970s road; the stretch points to vulnerability if policy tightens. The signs disagree, and that is the story of now.
Real policy rate
+0.03%Sep 2026
In the 0–2% group. Gold then rose +21% a year on average, up in 82% of cases
Leans 1970s
Energy prices (1 yr)
+89%Oct 2026
Oil joining the rise is the 1970s mid-wave order (gold first, oil later)
Leans 1970s
Stretch above the long trend
+141%inflation-adjusted
Second only to the 1980 top (+178%). After the highest third, gold returned +2% a year over ten years
Vulnerable to tightening
Real policy rate = the US federal funds rate (FRED FEDFUNDS) minus one-year inflation. Stretch = inflation-adjusted gold (Jacks, since 1850) above a straight line fitted to data up to the previous year (log). The “afterwards” figures are hindsight averages; as tested above, they did not improve forecasts at the time.
5. The record
Once a month the one- and five-year 8-in-10 ranges are recorded and later checked against the actual price. Records are never rewritten.
| Recorded | Price then | 1-yr range | Result | 5-yr range | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | $3,899 | $3,351–$5,522 | Checked on 2027-11-01 | $2,910–$10,470 | Checked on 2031-11-01 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4,215 | $3,622–$5,973 | Checked on 2027-10-01 | $3,145–$11,324 | Checked on 2031-10-01 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4,215 | $3,622–$5,973 | Checked on 2027-09-30 | $3,145–$11,324 | Checked on 2031-09-30 |
Today’s price: COMEX gold futures close on 2026-11-09. Past prices: World Bank monthly averages. Not investment advice; these are past data applied to today, not promises.