Black Stone Minerals, L.P.BSM · NYSE

Results over the years

Fiscal years from SEC filings (10-K).

Why the market may be pricing it low

• Revenue depends on prices that operators realize on oil and gas, and BSM controls neither prices nor drilling timing. The market treats profit as a commodity-cycle peak, not durable earnings.

  Our revenues, operating results, cash distributions to unitholders, and the carrying value of our oil and natural gas properties depend significantly upon the prevailing prices for oil and natural gas.Risk factors

• Distributions follow operating cash, not profit, and the partnership has no obligation to pay. Preferred holders rank ahead, so common unitholders find their payout hard to predict.

  our partnership agreement does not require us to pay distributions to our common unitholders on a quarterly basis or otherwise.Risk factors

• Oil fell in 2025 on rising global supply and demand uncertainty. With revenue and profit declining, the market prices the future cautiously.

  Oil prices decreased during the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to increased global supply and uncertainty about the outlook for global economic growth and oil demand.MD&A

What could close the gap

• If Shelby Trough development agreements ramp as planned, the commodity-dependence image fades. Minimum drilling commitments give visibility on future production.

  Revenant is obligated to drill a minimum of 6 wells in 2026, increasing annually to a minimum of 25 wells per year by 2030.MD&A

• If the newly signed development agreement turns into actual drilling and output, it supports growth.

  In November 2025, we entered into a 220,000 gross acre development agreement with Caturus, which aims to push the Shelby Trough westward towards the Western Haynesville.MD&A

• Gas prices are supported by LNG exports and power demand. If this tailwind persists, rising gas exposure may get re-rated.

  higher demand for power generation during the summer months also contributed to higher natural gas prices. In addition, continued growth in LNG export demand further strengthened market conditions.MD&A

How a buyer could still lose (value trap)

• If oil falls again, the revenue and profit decline deepens and distributions could be cut. Cash spent on acquisitions also reduces what is left for payouts.

  we may restrict distributions, in whole or in part, to fund acquisitions and participation in working interests.Risk factors

• If operators delay drilling, the development agreements won't help. Operating profit is already shrinking, so the peak of the cycle may have passed.

  Based on the figures below

Financial quality (Piotroski F-score)

• ✓Profitable (ROA > 0)
• ✓Positive operating cash flow
• ✓ROA up on last year
• ✓Cash flow exceeds net profit
• ✗Leverage down on last year
• ✓Current ratio up on last year
• –No new shares issuedno data
• –Gross margin up on last yearno data
• ✓Asset turnover up on last year

Scored out of the checks with data, scaled to 9. Compares the latest year with the year before.

Figures

Sales

$427m

Operating profit

$258m

Net profit

$244m

Operating cash flow

$323m

Cash

$5m

Debt

$0m

Equity

—

Latest twelve months to 2026-09-30; F-score for the fiscal year to 2025-12-31