US ／ CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.CF · NYSE
A company that manufactures ammonia and ammonia-derived nitrogen fertilizers and industrial chemicals, and sells them to cooperatives, retailers, distributors and industrial users.
- AmmoniaCore product: anhydrous ammonia (82% nitrogen, 18% hydrogen)
- Nitrogen fertilizersGranular urea, UAN solution and ammonium nitrate sold to cooperatives and distributors
- Industrial productsDiesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia sold to industrial customers
- Explosives-grade ANAmmonium nitrate also used as a component in commercial explosives
Summarised by AI from the 10-K, Item 1; the supporting quote was checked against the filing.
Nitrogen fertilizer is an undifferentiated global commodity that once fell over a third in an oversupply cycle, and new capacity keeps coming online, so the market treats today's high profit as temporary.
How rare is that fall? (US companies of the same size over ten years) →
Results over the years
| 2022/12 | 2023/12 | 2024/12 | 2025/12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | $11.2bn | $6.6bn | $5.9bn | $7.1bn |
| Operating profit | $5.4bn | $2.2bn | $1.7bn | $2.3bn |
| Net profit | $3.9bn | $1.8bn | $1.5bn | $1.8bn |
| Operating cash flow | $3.9bn | $2.8bn | $2.3bn | $2.8bn |
Fiscal years from SEC filings (10-K).
Why the market may be pricing it low
Customers choose mainly on delivered price for an undifferentiated commodity, forcing price-only competition with subsidized state-owned rivals.
Customers tend to make their purchasing decisions of these products principally on the basis of delivered priceRisk factors
New capacity once drove prices down 34%, and additional capacity keeps coming online globally now, raising fears of a repeat oversupply.
the average selling price for our products declined 34%, from $314 per ton in 2015 to $207 per ton in 2017Risk factors
Additional capacity has come online in the past 12 months and is expected to keep coming online globally, seen as a continuing weight on prices.
Additional nitrogen production capacity has come online in the past 12 months and is expected to continueRisk factors
What could close the gap
In 2025 the company completed first sales of low-carbon ammonia at a premium to traditional ammonia in Europe and Africa, showing a shift to higher-value product.
we completed our first sales of low-carbon ammonia at a premium to traditional ammonia consumers in Europe and AfricaMD&A
European Union regulation including the carbon border adjustment mechanism is pushing customers to seek lower-carbon ammonia to avoid extra costs.
as customers seek to reduce the additional costs imposed by the European Union’s regulations, including the carbon border adjustment mechanismMD&A
JERA and Mitsui have committed low-carbon ammonia volumes for power generation and steel production, new applications cited as evidence of emerging demand.
They have committed low-carbon ammonia volumes from the Blue Point joint venture for power generation and steel productionMD&A
How a buyer could still lose (value trap)
Today's 43.5% ROE may reflect a cyclical price peak in a commodity that has fallen 34% per ton before, so profit and cash flow could shrink quickly in a downturn.
Based on the figures below
With cash of $2.48B against debt of $3.216B, net cash is negative while large low-carbon ammonia investments continue, so financial slack could look thin in a downturn.
Based on the figures below
Drafted by AI on 1 Oct 2026 from the figures on this page and excerpts of the filing only (no web search). Each point's quote was checked by machine against the filing text; points whose quote could not be found are not shown. These are hypotheses, not findings. Latest 10-K (SEC)
Financial quality (Piotroski F-score)
- ✓Profitable (ROA > 0)
- ✓Positive operating cash flow
- ✓ROA up on last year
- ✓Cash flow exceeds net profit
- ✗Leverage down on last year
- ✓Current ratio up on last year
- ✓No new shares issued
- ✓Gross margin up on last year
- ✓Asset turnover up on last year
Scored out of the checks with data, scaled to 9. Compares the latest year with the year before.
Figures
- Sales
- $7.9bn
- Operating profit
- $3.3bn
- Net profit
- $2.6bn
- Operating cash flow
- $3.1bn
- Cash
- $2.8bn
- Debt
- $3.2bn
- Equity
- $5.7bn
Latest twelve months to 2026-09-30; F-score for the fiscal year to 2025-12-31
This site ranks companies whose share price is low relative to their profits, using public filings and market prices, and has AI draft hypotheses on why they are cheap from those filings. The hypotheses are unverified. Nothing here is a price forecast or a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.
Updated 10 Nov 2026 08:40 JST