What changed this week 2 Nov 2026
The figures on each site change every morning. This issue lists only what changed in the week since 26 Oct 2026.
In three lines
- Premise calls changed: AI Cycle Watch Holds → Watch; Gold Miners Watch Watch → Holds.
- No new tender offer or MBO was filed.
- 17 names turned oversold (Silver (US dollars, futures), Gold (US dollars, futures), Harmony Gold and others).
Premise calls
| Site | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|
| AI Cycle Watch | ● Case holds → ▲ Watch | 1 of 5 warning signs lit |
| Gold Miners Watch | ▲ Watch → ● Case holds | 4 of 5 conditions for miners to beat gold hold |
| Gold Premise Watch | ▲ Watch | 1 of 4 warning signs lit |
| Power Watch | ● Case holds | Power demand is growing faster than generation and the grid can keep up |
| US–China AI Race Watch | ● Case holds | The US leads on chips, China leads on power |
| Supercycle Check | ▲ Watch | prices are rising, but a new supercycle has not clearly begun |
| Yen & Rates Watch | ▲ Watch | The weak yen holds but is wobbling: 2 of the three checks point toward a stronger yen |
New tender offers and MBOs
No deal was filed this week.
Key figures (last week → this week)
| Site | Item | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI Cycle Watch | Warning signs | 0/5 lit → 1/5 lit | conditions seen in 2000 |
| 47 months since ChatGPT | 2.26x → 2.22x | Nasdaq; 1999: 2.78x | |
| NVIDIA vs GDP | 15.6% → 14.9% | Cisco in 2000: 5.5% | |
| US–China AI Race Watch | Model gap | 4.4 months → 7.4 months | China's best model |
| Capital Cycle | Data-centre capex | 3.5x depreciation → 3.6x depreciation | the most since 2008 |
| Gold Miners Watch | GDX beta to gold | 1.88x → 1.91x | last 52 weeks |
| Leverage conditions | 3/5 → 4/5 | for miners to beat gold | |
| Gold Premise Watch | Gold futures | $4,008 → $3,899 | |
| Power Watch | US power use | +1.3% → +1.2% | 12 months vs a year earlier |
| Timing Watch | Oversold today | 19 → 22 | of 177 |
| Overheated today | 3 → 2 | of 177 | |
| Yen & Rates Watch | USD/JPY | ¥156.92 → ¥157.48 | a year ago ¥153.90 |
| 10-year JGB | 2.91% → 2.88% | highest since 2026 |
Newly oversold or overheated
| Name | Group | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Silver (US dollars, futures) | Gold & silver | Oversold |
| Gold (US dollars, futures) | Gold & silver | Oversold |
| Harmony Gold | Gold miners | Oversold |
| Kinross Gold | Gold miners | Oversold |
| GOLDCREST Co.,Ltd. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| FORVAL TELECOM,INC. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| GMO Product Platform, Inc. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| SBI ARUHI Corporation | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| SHANON Inc. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| Japan Tissue Engineering Co., Ltd. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| StemCell Institute Inc. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| GMO Media, Inc. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| DEAR LIFE CO.,LTD. | Value | Oversold |
| Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | Value | Oversold |
| MARUZEN CO.,LTD. | Value | Oversold |
| Skywest Inc | Value | Oversold |
| TOKAI RIKA CO.,LTD. | Value | Oversold |
| ADT Inc. | Value | Overheated |
How the calls are made and how far to trust them: Timing Watch evidence
Value Watch: in and out
Added
- Gamecard Holdings,Inc.(旧英訳名 Gamecard-Joyco Holdings,Inc.)(注)2025年6月19日開催の定時株主総会の決議により、2025年10月1日か ら会社名及び英訳名を上記の通り変更いたしました。 #7 in Japan · EV/EBIT 2.5x
- AIDA ENGINEERING, LTD. #30 in Japan · EV/EBIT 4.3x
- Phinia Inc. #22 in the US · EV/EBIT 9.7x
- Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. #40 in the US · EV/EBIT 11.6x
Dropped
- Makino Milling Machine Co., Ltd.
- PERDOCEO EDUCATION Corp
- Sonoco Products Co
- Pilgrims Pride Corp
Past issues
- 9 Nov 2026 No premise call changed from last week.
- 26 Oct 2026 Premise calls changed: Gold Miners Watch Holds → Watch.
- 19 Oct 2026 No premise call changed from last week.
- 12 Oct 2026 Premise calls changed: Yen & Rates Watch Holds → Watch.
- 5 Oct 2026 No premise call changed from last week.
- 1 Oct 2026 Premise calls: 5 hold, 2 on watch, 0 broken (compared week by week from this issue on).
Built mechanically every Monday morning from each site's own data (no AI). Not investment advice.