What changed this week 5 Oct 2026
The figures on each site change every morning. This issue lists only what changed in the week since 1 Oct 2026.
In three lines
- No premise call changed from last week.
- No new tender offer or MBO was filed.
- 5 names turned oversold (AEON Financial Service Co., Ltd., GOLDCREST Co.,Ltd., SBI ARUHI Corporation and others).
Premise calls
| Site | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|
| AI Cycle Watch | ● Case holds | none of the 5 warning signs lit |
| Gold Premise Watch | ▲ Watch | 1 of 4 warning signs lit |
| Gold Miners Watch | ● Case holds | 4 of 5 conditions for miners to beat gold hold |
| Power Watch | ● Case holds | Power demand is growing faster than generation and the grid can keep up |
| US–China AI Race Watch | ● Case holds | The US leads on chips, China leads on power |
| Supercycle Check | ▲ Watch | prices are rising, but a new supercycle has not clearly begun |
| Yen & Rates Watch | ● Case holds | The weak yen holds: 1 of the three checks points toward a stronger yen |
New tender offers and MBOs
No deal was filed this week.
Key figures (last week → this week)
| Site | Item | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI Cycle Watch | 46 months since ChatGPT | 2.34x → 2.37x | Nasdaq; 1999: 2.44x |
| NVIDIA vs GDP | 16.9% → 17.3% | Cisco in 2000: 5.5% | |
| Gold Miners Watch | GDX beta to gold | 1.81x → 1.80x | last 52 weeks |
| Gold Premise Watch | Gold futures | $4,215 → $4,162 | |
| Timing Watch | Oversold today | 8 → 11 | of 172 |
| Yen & Rates Watch | USD/JPY | ¥157.24 → ¥157.80 | a year ago ¥147.15 |
| 10-year JGB | 3.08% → 3.09% | highest since 1996 |
Newly oversold or overheated
| Name | Group | Call |
|---|---|---|
| AEON Financial Service Co., Ltd. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| GOLDCREST Co.,Ltd. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| SBI ARUHI Corporation | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| HITO-TO-HITO Holdings Co.,Ltd. | TOB candidates | Oversold |
| TRE HOLDINGS CORPORATION | Value | Oversold |
| Furukawa Electric | Power | Overheated |
| DATA HORIZON CO.,LTD. | TOB candidates | Overheated |
How the calls are made and how far to trust them: Timing Watch evidence
Value Watch: in and out
Added
- Densan System Holdings Co., Ltd. #11 in Japan · EV/EBIT 3.3x
- NAKANO CORPORATION #15 in Japan · EV/EBIT 3.6x
- MATSUI CONSTRUCTION CO., LTD. #21 in Japan · EV/EBIT 4.0x
- ICHIKEN Co., Ltd. #28 in Japan · EV/EBIT 4.4x
- CF Industries Holdings, Inc. #6 in the US · EV/EBIT 6.7x
- Genpact LTD #13 in the US · EV/EBIT 8.0x
- Kbr, Inc. #20 in the US · EV/EBIT 8.9x
Dropped
- PIA CORPORATION
- UNIPRES CORPORATION
- Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.
Past issues
- 9 Nov 2026 No premise call changed from last week.
- 2 Nov 2026 Premise calls changed: AI Cycle Watch Holds → Watch; Gold Miners Watch Watch → Holds.
- 26 Oct 2026 Premise calls changed: Gold Miners Watch Holds → Watch.
- 19 Oct 2026 No premise call changed from last week.
- 12 Oct 2026 Premise calls changed: Yen & Rates Watch Holds → Watch.
- 1 Oct 2026 Premise calls: 5 hold, 2 on watch, 0 broken (compared week by week from this issue on).
Built mechanically every Monday morning from each site's own data (no AI). Not investment advice.