Japanese interest rates
Key points
- Japanese rates sat near zero for almost 30 years from the mid-1990s. They began rising after the BoJ ended negative rates in March 2024; the overnight rate it steers is now 0.98% (Aug 2026).
- Long rates moved further. The 10-year JGB yield climbed from 0.9% two years ago to 3.08%, the highest since 1996. The 30-year yields 4.12%, the highest since it was first issued in 1999.
- The BoJ holds 47% of government bonds (Jun 2026; peak 54% in Sep 2023). As it buys less, the foreign share has risen from 4.5% at end-2012 to 7.9%.
- Government debt (bonds, FILP bonds and bills) is ¥1,064 trillion. If rates stay 1 point higher, once it has all rolled over the interest bill rises by about ¥10.6 trillion a year.
10-year JGB
3.08%
28 Sep 2026
30-year JGB
4.12%
28 Sep 2026
Overnight rate (BoJ target)
0.98%
Aug 2026 average
BoJ share of JGBs
47%
End of Jun 2026
The BoJ policy rate: out of zero after 30 years
Show the numbers
| Date | Overnight rate |
|---|---|
| Jan 1960 | 8.4% |
| Jan 1961 | 8.2% |
| Jan 1962 | 8.8% |
| Jan 1963 | 8.0% |
| Jan 1964 | 7.7% |
| Jan 1965 | 8.4% |
| Jan 1966 | 5.8% |
| Jan 1967 | 5.8% |
| Jan 1968 | 7.7% |
| Jan 1969 | 7.3% |
| Jan 1970 | 8.2% |
| Jan 1971 | 7.4% |
| Jan 1972 | 5.0% |
| Jan 1973 | 5.0% |
| Jan 1974 | 11.7% |
| Jan 1975 | 12.7% |
| Jan 1976 | 7.3% |
| Jan 1977 | 7.0% |
| Jan 1978 | 4.8% |
| Jan 1979 | 4.3% |
| Jan 1980 | 8.1% |
| Jan 1981 | 8.9% |
| Jan 1982 | 6.6% |
| Jan 1983 | 6.6% |
| Jan 1984 | 6.0% |
| Jan 1985 | 6.2% |
| Jan 1986 | 7.0% |
| Jan 1987 | 4.3% |
| Jan 1988 | 3.7% |
| Jan 1989 | 4.1% |
| Jan 1990 | 6.6% |
| Jan 1991 | 8.1% |
| Jan 1992 | 5.5% |
| Jan 1993 | 3.9% |
| Jan 1994 | 2.3% |
| Jan 1995 | 2.2% |
| Jan 1996 | 0.5% |
| Jan 1997 | 0.5% |
| Jan 1998 | 0.4% |
| Jan 1999 | 0.2% |
| Jan 2000 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2001 | 0.2% |
| Jan 2002 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2003 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2004 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2005 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2006 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2007 | 0.3% |
| Jan 2008 | 0.5% |
| Jan 2009 | 0.1% |
| Jan 2010 | 0.1% |
| Jan 2011 | 0.1% |
| Jan 2012 | 0.1% |
| Jan 2013 | 0.1% |
| Jan 2014 | 0.1% |
| Jan 2015 | 0.1% |
| Jan 2016 | 0.1% |
| Jan 2017 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2018 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2019 | -0.1% |
| Jan 2020 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2021 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2022 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2023 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2024 | 0.0% |
| Jan 2025 | 0.3% |
| Jan 2026 | 0.7% |
| Aug 2026 | 1.0% |
Government bond yields: the longer, the bigger the rise
Show the numbers
| Date | 2-year | 10-year | 30-year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2000 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Jan 2001 | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| Jan 2002 | 0.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% |
| Jan 2003 | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Jan 2004 | 0.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% |
| Jan 2005 | 0.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% |
| Jan 2006 | 0.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Jan 2007 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| Jan 2008 | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% |
| Jan 2009 | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% |
| Jan 2010 | 0.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| Jan 2011 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% |
| Jan 2012 | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Jan 2013 | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| Jan 2014 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.7% |
| Jan 2015 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| Jan 2016 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| Jan 2017 | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| Jan 2018 | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| Jan 2019 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Jan 2020 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Jan 2021 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Jan 2022 | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| Jan 2023 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.6% |
| Jan 2024 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.7% |
| Jan 2025 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% |
| Jan 2026 | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% |
| Sep 2026 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
Show the numbers
| Date | 10-year | 30-year |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2024 | 0.9% | 2.1% |
| 10 Oct 2024 | 1.0% | 2.2% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | 1.0% | 2.2% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | 0.9% | 2.2% |
| 15 Nov 2024 | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| 27 Nov 2024 | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | 1.1% | 2.2% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | 1.1% | 2.2% |
| 6 Jan 2025 | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | 1.2% | 2.3% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | 1.2% | 2.2% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| 21 Feb 2025 | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| 6 Mar 2025 | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| 18 Mar 2025 | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| 31 Mar 2025 | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| 10 Apr 2025 | 1.4% | 2.6% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | 1.3% | 2.7% |
| 7 May 2025 | 1.3% | 2.8% |
| 19 May 2025 | 1.5% | 2.9% |
| 29 May 2025 | 1.5% | 2.9% |
| 10 Jun 2025 | 1.5% | 2.8% |
| 20 Jun 2025 | 1.4% | 2.8% |
| 2 Jul 2025 | 1.4% | 2.8% |
| 14 Jul 2025 | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| 25 Jul 2025 | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | 1.5% | 3.0% |
| 19 Aug 2025 | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| 29 Aug 2025 | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| 10 Sep 2025 | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| 24 Sep 2025 | 1.7% | 3.1% |
| 6 Oct 2025 | 1.7% | 3.2% |
| 17 Oct 2025 | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 1.7% | 3.1% |
| 11 Nov 2025 | 1.7% | 3.2% |
| 21 Nov 2025 | 1.8% | 3.3% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| 16 Dec 2025 | 2.0% | 3.3% |
| 26 Dec 2025 | 2.0% | 3.3% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 2.2% | 3.5% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | 2.3% | 3.6% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | 2.2% | 3.6% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | 2.1% | 3.4% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| 12 Mar 2026 | 2.2% | 3.5% |
| 25 Mar 2026 | 2.3% | 3.5% |
| 6 Apr 2026 | 2.4% | 3.7% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | 2.4% | 3.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 2.5% | 3.6% |
| 14 May 2026 | 2.6% | 3.9% |
| 26 May 2026 | 2.7% | 3.9% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 2.7% | 3.8% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 2.6% | 3.7% |
| 29 Jun 2026 | 2.6% | 3.8% |
| 9 Jul 2026 | 2.9% | 4.0% |
| 22 Jul 2026 | 2.7% | 3.9% |
| 3 Aug 2026 | 2.8% | 4.0% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2.9% | 4.0% |
| 26 Aug 2026 | 2.9% | 4.0% |
| 7 Sep 2026 | 2.9% | 4.0% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 3.1% | 4.1% |
Compared with the US
Show the numbers
| Date | US | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1987 | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Jan 1988 | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| Jan 1989 | 9.1% | 4.8% |
| Jan 1990 | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Jan 1991 | 8.1% | 6.5% |
| Jan 1992 | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| Jan 1993 | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Jan 1994 | 5.8% | 3.6% |
| Jan 1995 | 7.8% | 4.6% |
| Jan 1996 | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Jan 1997 | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| Jan 1998 | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| Jan 1999 | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Jan 2000 | 6.7% | 1.7% |
| Jan 2001 | 5.2% | 1.5% |
| Jan 2002 | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Jan 2003 | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Jan 2004 | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Jan 2005 | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Jan 2006 | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Jan 2007 | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Jan 2008 | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Jan 2009 | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Jan 2010 | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Jan 2011 | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Jan 2012 | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Jan 2013 | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Jan 2014 | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Jan 2015 | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Jan 2016 | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Jan 2017 | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Jan 2018 | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Jan 2019 | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Jan 2020 | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Jan 2021 | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Jan 2022 | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Jan 2023 | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Jan 2024 | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Jan 2025 | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Jan 2026 | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Aug 2026 | 4.7% | 2.9% |
The US 10-year yields 5.17% (25 Sep 2026). US fiscal checks (deficit, interest bill, Treasury buyers) run every morning in Gold Premise Watch. For the long history of commodity prices, see Supercycle Check.
Who holds government bonds?
Massive buying from 2013 left the BoJ holding about half of all government bonds. As it buys less, banks, insurers and foreigners must take up the slack. The small foreign share also means less risk of the foreign selling that often triggers currency collapses.
Show the numbers
| Bank of Japan | Banks etc. | Insurers & pension funds | Overseas | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 11% | 28% | 19% | 8% | 34% |
| 1998 | 12% | 26% | 19% | 8% | 34% |
| 1999 | 12% | 28% | 21% | 5% | 34% |
| 2000 | 12% | 30% | 21% | 6% | 32% |
| 2001 | 15% | 28% | 21% | 5% | 31% |
| 2002 | 16% | 32% | 21% | 3% | 28% |
| 2003 | 15% | 36% | 20% | 2% | 26% |
| 2004 | 15% | 36% | 20% | 3% | 26% |
| 2005 | 14% | 38% | 21% | 4% | 24% |
| 2006 | 11% | 40% | 22% | 4% | 23% |
| 2007 | 10% | 38% | 23% | 6% | 24% |
| 2008 | 8% | 40% | 23% | 5% | 24% |
| 2009 | 7% | 41% | 25% | 4% | 23% |
| 2010 | 8% | 42% | 25% | 4% | 21% |
| 2011 | 9% | 42% | 26% | 4% | 19% |
| 2012 | 12% | 40% | 27% | 4% | 18% |
| 2013 | 17% | 36% | 27% | 4% | 16% |
| 2014 | 23% | 32% | 27% | 5% | 13% |
| 2015 | 31% | 27% | 26% | 5% | 11% |
| 2016 | 38% | 22% | 25% | 6% | 8% |
| 2017 | 43% | 19% | 24% | 6% | 8% |
| 2018 | 46% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 8% |
| 2019 | 47% | 14% | 24% | 7% | 8% |
| 2020 | 48% | 13% | 24% | 7% | 8% |
| 2021 | 48% | 13% | 23% | 8% | 9% |
| 2022 | 52% | 11% | 22% | 6% | 8% |
| 2023 | 54% | 11% | 21% | 6% | 8% |
| 2024 | 52% | 12% | 20% | 6% | 10% |
| 2025 | 49% | 13% | 19% | 7% | 12% |
| 2026/6 | 47% | 14% | 18% | 8% | 13% |
What happens as rates rise
Government debt is ¥1,064 trillion (end-Jun 2026, central-government liabilities in the flow of funds). If rates stay higher, once everything has rolled over the annual interest bill rises roughly as follows (holding the debt constant).
| Rise in rates | Extra interest per year |
|---|---|
| +1% | about ¥10.6 tn |
| +2% | about ¥21.2 tn |
| +3% | about ¥31.8 tn |
| Who | What happens |
|---|---|
| Government interest bill | Bonds are refinanced at the new rate as they mature, so a lasting rise feeds into the interest bill over several years to a decade. |
| Bank of Japan | The BoJ holds bonds bought when yields were low, while it pays interest on banks' deposits at the policy rate. The higher rates go, the more its interest paid can outrun its interest received. |
| Households | Deposit rates and floating mortgage rates both rise: good for savers, a headwind for borrowers. |
| The yen | If only Japanese rates rise and the gap with the US narrows, recent years say the yen strengthens. Over the long run, though, the gap and the yen often fail to move together (see “Why is the yen weak?”). |
The guide is debt × the rise in rates; bonds keep their old coupon until they mature, so the real increase comes more slowly.
Updated 29 Sep 2026 12:04 JST · real effective rate to Jul 2026 · balance of payments to Jul 2026